Long Island job growth declines to 2-year low

BY CARRIE MASON-DRAFFEN | carrie.mason-draffen@newsday.com

May 15, 2008

The struggling Long Island job market declined to a two-year low in April, raising local economists' concerns about whether the region has fallen into a recession.

The private sector grew 0.2 percent, or 2,100 jobs, in the 12-month period ended in April, the fewest since April 2006, according to data released yesterday by the New York State Labor Department.

"That's very consistent with an economy that is slowing down and either in a recession or going into one," said Thomas Conoscenti, a Nesconset-based economist and adjunct professor of economics at New York University.

Said Pearl Kamer, chief economist for the Long Island Association, "Clearly job growth has slowed substantially; in fact it has almost come to a halt."

New York City's private sector job growth rate was significantly higher than Long Island's -- 1.1 percent, or 35,500 jobs. The unemployment rate was 4.5 percent in April, unchanged from a year ago.

Long Island's unemployment rose to 3.9 percent in April, compared with 3.3 percent a year ago. But that rate moderated from the 12-month period ended in March, when unemployment rose to 4.5 percent.

The educational and health-services sector posted the biggest gain, adding 3,800 jobs. The categories with some of the biggest losses indicate continued problems in the housing market. The financial-activities sector, which includes the mortgage industry, took the hardest hit, shedding 2,400 jobs. The category that includes mortgage brokers, credit intermediation and related activities also lost 2,400 jobs in the latest 12- month period.

The Labor Department compares data on a yearly basis to avoid seasonal swings.

Some once red-hot sectors have cooled off, worrying economists.

Professional and business services, which for a long time led job creation, lost 1,000 jobs in the latest report.

"Those are high-paying jobs," Kamer said. "That's where you see the recession beginning to take hold."

But not all is doom and gloom. Dana Terzian, a direct-placement recruiter for Adecco, the staffing company which has is North American headquarters in Melville, said that college graduates seeking permanent jobs in accounting and sales are receiving multiple offers.

"It's a candidate-driven market right now," she said.

And Gary Huth, the Labor Department's principal economist for Long Island, said that while the latest numbers show some slowing, the lack of major layoffs means there is no cause yet for "full-blown concern."

"The brakes are clearly on this economy," he said. "But the car is still on the road."