Toy 'hot list' more a plaything for adults than kids

By Lauren Weber | Staff Writer

October 6, 2004

Children haven't even consumed their Halloween treats -- let alone come down from the sugar rush -- but for the toy industry, the focus is all about Christmas.

Yesterday, trade magazine Toy Wishes released its "Hot Dozen" toy list, the first of the major lists that predict what the best, and the best-selling, new toys for kids will be this year.

But a number of experts caution parents to be skeptical of these lists, since they sometimes reflect a less-than-independent selection process or flawed methodology.

"My take is that these lists are for the industry, they're not for parents," said Marianne Szymanski, founder of the Toy Research Institute, a toy evaluation program that does not accept revenue from toy-makers.

Still, she said, parents are deluged with them because of intense media coverage, and they sometimes rely on them because they are overwhelmed with the flood of toys released before the winter holidays.

The "Hot Dozen" list includes two Barbie dolls pegged to "The Princess and the Pauper" movie, the re-launched Cabbage Patch Kids, a singing Elmo character and a portable video player.

Manufacturers such as Hasbro, Mattel, Fisher-Price (which is owned by Mattel), Play Along and Jakks Pacific are represented.

Jim Silver, editor in chief of Toy Wishes, said his staff uses a 10-step list to evaluate toys, asking such questions as "Is it fun?" "Is it innovative?" "Is it reasonably priced?"

He also looks at distribution, a factor that works against the small companies and inventors who may create enchanting toys but don't have clout or connections.

"We're not going to pick a toy that's not going to be on the shelves," Silver said.

Toy store owners, especially independent ones with limited space, have to treat the lists carefully, said Roy Stevenson, co-owner, with his wife Polly, of Stevenson's Toys and Games in Southampton.

"You really have to have your own filters," Stevenson said. "I spend a lot of time in the store listening to kids -- what do they think is cool, what TV shows are they watching, what do they want that they don't already have?"

In general, he said, "I think the 'hot toy' lists, many of them are manufacturer-driven." In other words, the toys that make the list may not actually be those that children will eagerly play with beyond Christmas morning.

Indeed, even as the lists overwhelmingly favor big products and toy-makers, they sometimes miss the trends that mark a certain year.

"In 2001, after Sept. 11, board games were hugely popular. But there wasn't a board game on any of those lists," said Britt Beemer, a retail consultant who heads America's Research Group.

Yet the lists sometimes end up being self-fulfilling, fueling the hype that accompanies the holiday toy selling season, Beemer said.

Major retailers watch the lists and even participate in events promoting the toys that make the cut. For instance, Toys "R" Us customers will receive a free copy of the Toy Wishes Holiday 2004 issue with every purchase.

Then there is the relentless advertising by mega-manufacturers like Hasbro and Mattel, who reach kids not just with TV commercials but with a steady cycle of licensed products featuring movie and television characters.

These cozy relationships -- among toy manufacturers, toy sellers and toy media -- feed the $21-billion industry, Szymanski said.

Even so, toy manufacturers -- and hot toy lists -- sometimes fail to create the kind of hysteria that gets parents up at 3 a.m. to wait in line for a blockbuster toy.

"Last year there wasn't really a hot toy you just had to have," Stevenson said.

That doesn't stop toy-makers from trying. "Every manufacturer is hoping for the Cabbage Patch Kid or the FurReal kitten," he said of blockbusters from 1984 and 2002. "If they knew how to create it, believe me, they would. But you can't just push a button."