Everybody seems to be releasing housing market data and using them to highlight the state of real estate and predict the future.
But look deeper into the numbers -- sometimes in the fine print and sometimes nowhere -- and it’s not hard to find a flaw or quirk in the data released by various companies.
For example, Newsday reported on the July foreclosure-related filings from RealtyTrac, a California-based online market for foreclosures. For Suffolk, it calculated a 1,457 percent increase in default, auction and other filings compared to a year ago – 685 in July and 44 for the entire county in July last year. But that four-digit hike is inaccurate because RealtyTrac had data-gathering problems last year for the county.
The respected Case-Shiller home price indice, from Standard and Poor’s credit rating agency, tracks home values over time for various markets. But it does not cover coops and condominiums, and the data for the New York City metro region includes not just Long Island but also parts of Pennsylvania, Connecticut and New Jersey.
In another example, when the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island releases monthly median closing prices, number of sales and other figures for Queens, one might think the data covers most sales in Queens. It does not, partly because many agents in the borough aren’t members of the Long Island Board of Realtors.
For July in Queens, MLS showed a 15.3 percent drop in median closing price compared to a year ago, compared to 4 percent for Suffolk and 7.4 percent for Nassau. Queens had been really hot at one point, just like much of New York City. If more sales were factored in, could the Queens drop have been tinier or bigger?
When Manhattan-based appraiser Jonathan Miller releases quarterly reports for Long Island and Queens combined, it’s based on MLS data. It doesn’t mean his calculations are wrong – they’re accurate based on what’s available - but they’re only a subset of the entire market.
“Gallup uses 2,000 telephone interviews to represent the entire country,” he said, referring to the oft-quoted market research company.
But in the statistical world, the bigger the set of data, the more accurate the conclusions.
That’s why Miller, chief executive of Miller Samuel, has begun working on a separate report on Queens, one that won’t just use MLS data but also those from New York City, which has simplified access and downloading of housing sales records.
The first Queens-only report is expected to cover third-quarter sales and come out in October. Like in his other reports, Miller will break down data by type of property and by neighborhood.
MLS’ raw data for Queens have been big enough to give a good idea of what’s going on, Miller said, but getting city government numbers will furnish a clearer picture.
“That’s a good thing for the consumer,” he said. “My goal is to get a better view of what’s happening in Queens.”
