Mining this year's local races for next year's trends
Other Columnists
Tuesday ends your basic hyperlocal election campaign, with only municipal and county posts up for grabs. These races generated maybe a wisp of last year's nationwide excitement. Even the premature handicapping of the 2010 state contests drew more hype than this year's ballot.
Still, Tuesday's results will help inform next year's party strategies. Key themes to assess once the tallies come in:
Regional turnout will fall off from last year. The question is how much. Who comes out - and who sits out - can vary significantly from one election to the next.
Fiscal downturns commonly hurt incumbents. A voter could reach for a minor party line as an alternative - even if a major-party candidate runs on it. Operatives will sift minor-line totals for trends.
Most voters see through last-minute attack ads - which nonetheless can shift a bit of support. They're usually about taxes and spending. Any successful, original slam will be copied in future races.
Warning: Those mushy "mandate" and "political capital" cliches are coming. Close wins can dampen a politician's future chances in a bigger forum. Low-turnout, lopsided wins can be misleadingly spun as "landslides."
THREE TO WATCH: As one strategist outlined privately last week, the fates of three neighboring executives seeking re-election will be worth comparing: Andrew Spano, county executive in Westchester, Michael Bloomberg, mayor of New York City, and Thomas Suozzi, county executive in Nassau, where three intense legislative contests should lift those districts' turnouts (as will competitive City Council races in Brooklyn and Queens).
MEANS OF DISSENT: In an unusual move, state Conservative Party vice chairman Allen Roth of Rockville Centre announced on Friday that he is in favor of Republican Edward Mangano - and against Conservative candidate Steve Hansen - in the race against Suozzi. Roth jointly sent a letter to county party members with longtime Conservative activist and author George Marlin of New Hyde Park, explaining their position and, in part, citing Hansen's job in the Suozzi administration.
ALERT REPLY: In the short-answer portion of last Tuesday's county-executive debate at Hofstra University, Mangano and Suozzi said when asked about "gambling at Belmont racetrack" that they support it. Only Hansen noted that gambling already exists there - before discussing what the question was clearly about: Casino-style wagering.
