Our critics’ Oscar picks

BY JAN STUART AND GENE SEYMOUR | jan.stuart@newsday.com; gene.seymour@newsday.com

February 24, 2008

Best Picture Nominees: "Atonement;" "Juno;" "Michael Clayton;" "No Country for Old Men;" "There Will Be Blood"

JAN STUART

Should Win: "There Will Be Blood." Well, "Citizen Kane" lost to "How Green Was My Valley." Why should Paul Thomas Anderson expect any more respect than Orson Welles?

Will win: "No Country for Old Men"

Shoulda been a contender: "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly." A roller-coaster ride, from inside the head of the trolley. Along with "There Will Be Blood," the summit of movie storytelling in 2007.

GENE SEYMOUR

Should win: "There Will Be Blood." A quixotic, breathtaking confrontation with the darkness lurking in the American soul.

Will win: "No Country for Old Men"

Shoulda been a contender: "Zodiac." The more I watch it, the more I'm convinced that it's some kind of itchy masterwork.

Best Director Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood;" Joel and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men;" Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton;" Jason Reitman, "Juno;" Julian Schnabel, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"

JAN STUART

Should win: Julian Schnabel, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly." In anyone else's hands, this would have been just another triumph-of-the-human-spirit potboiler.

Will win: Ethan and Joel Coen, "No Country for Old Men"

Shoulda been a contender: David Fincher, "Zodiac." A regular high-wire act: an epic serial-killer mystery, with minimal gore, no resolution and terrific performances across the board.

GENE SEYMOUR

Should win: Julian Schnabel, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly." To make an audience sympathetic to a desperate invalid is one thing. To make it feel almost exactly what that invalid is feeling is close to extraordinary.

Will win: Joel and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"

Shoulda been a contender: Brad Bird, "Ratatouille." Right now, he's as much an auteur in animation as Billy Wilder, Preston Sturges and Ernst Lubitsch were with live-action. It's high time Bird was properly acknowledged as such.

Best Actress Nominees: Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age;" Julie Christie, "Away From Her;" Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose;" Laura Linney, "The Savages;" Ellen Page, "Juno"

JAN STUART

Should win: Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose." Oh, those eyes. This is not acting by makeup, but a real, honest-to-God, standing-ovation-worthy, tour de force.

Will win: Julie Christie, "Away From Her"

Shoulda been a contender: Nicole Kidman, "Margot at the Wedding." It takes chutzpah and smarts to take on such an unsympathetic character and not kiss up to the audience. One of Kidman's most fine-tuned performances.

GENE SEYMOUR

Should win: Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose." If Jamie Foxx can win practically by acclamation for channeling Ray Charles, then where's the love for this electrifying portrayal of Edith Piaf?

Will win: Julie Christie, "Away From Her"

Shoulda been a contender: Naomi Watts, "Eastern Promises." Viggo Mortensen got all the attention for the accent, haircut and nude wrestling scene. But the movie wouldn't have earned its humanity without Watts' composure and intensity.

Best Actor Nominees: George Clooney, "Michael Clayton;" Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood;" Johnny Depp, "Sweeney Todd: The Barber of Fleet Street;" Tommy Lee Jones, "In the Valley of Elah;" Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"

JAN STUART

Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood." A chameleon. What other actor takes these sorts of risks, or disappears so utterly into a role?

Will win: Day-Lewis

Shoulda been a contender: Chris Cooper, "Breach." The forgotten great performance of the year, Cooper's CIA rat set the tone for a year of memorably pensive guys.

GENE SEYMOUR

Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood." Who's the greatest film actor out there right now? Mind you, I'm only asking.

Will win: Day-Lewis

Shoulda been a contender: Frank Langella, "Starting Out in the Evening." Maybe it's too subtle and contained to satisfy Oscar's hunger for grandeur and energy. But watching Langella create this portrait of a literary lion in winter is like hearing the late saxophonist Joe Henderson spin phrases off a Thelonious Monk ballad.

Best Supporting Actor Nominees: "Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford;" Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men;" Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War;" Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild;" Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

JAN STUART

Should win: Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men." The devil incarnate. And from such a nice man, no less.

Will win: Bardem

Shoulda been a contender: Paul Dano, "There Will Be Blood." A tiger with the face of a cherub. Day-Lewis couldn't have asked for a better sparring partner.

GENE SEYMOUR

Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, " Charlie Wilson's War." Not just for this well-wrought depiction of a grubby CIA agent but for his outstanding, relatively unheralded work in "The Savages" and "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead."

Will win: Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"

Shoulda been a contender: J.K. Simmons, "Juno." Didn't you guys think her parents were, like, just the best? I sure did.

Best Supporting Actress Nominees: Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There;" Ruby Dee, "American Gangster;" Saoirse Ronan, "Atonement;" Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone;" Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

JAN STUART

Should win: Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton." Any 30 seconds of Swinton girding her loins in this legal thriller said more about a certain breed of power woman than two hours of Meryl Streep's blowing a fuse in "The Devil Wears Prada."

Will win: Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There"

Shoulda been a contender: Leslie Mann, "Knocked Up." Mann's hyper-controlling Debbie almost stole the show, no mean feat given Judd Apatow's three-ring circus of neurotic clowns.

GENE SEYMOUR

Should win: Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone." If enough voters watch the DVD, they'll never forget her. And they shouldn't.

Will win: Ryan

Shoulda been a contender: Allison Janney, "Juno." Didn't you guys think her parents were, like, just the best? I sure did.