Emmy predictions and who should win

Ken Cosgrove (Aaron Stanton), Pete Campbell (Vincent Kartheiser)

Ken Cosgrove (Aaron Stanton), Pete Campbell (Vincent Kartheiser) and Trudy Campbell (Alison Brie) in "Mad Men" Season 5. (Credit: AMC)

Who will win and who should win Emmys? Here are my picks:

DRAMA SERIES

"Boardwalk Empire" (HBO)

"Breaking Bad" (AMC)

"Downton Abbey" (PBS)

"Game of Thrones" (HBO)

"Homeland" (Showtime)

"Mad Men" (AMC)

WILL WIN "Mad Men." Why? Because if you're an academy member who voted for it the last four times, why not vote for it again?

SHOULD WIN "Game of Thrones" and "Breaking Bad." I declare it a tie! "Thrones" is cinematic in scope and intentions -- another way of saying, awesome special effects and production values (not to mention acting and writing); and then there's "Bad," one of TV's great dramas. Isn't it about time?

 

DRAMA ACTOR

Hugh Bonneville, "Downton Abbey"

Steve Buscemi, "Boardwalk Empire"

Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad"

Michael C. Hall, "Dexter"

Jon Hamm, "Mad Men"

Damian Lewis, "Homeland"

WILL WIN Bonneville. The academy wants very badly to award this worthy series -- but not badly enough to hand it a best drama statuette. Bonneville will make up for that.

SHOULD WIN Lewis. Remarkable performance -- particularly the episode in the bunker with the vice president.

 

DRAMA ACTRESS

Kathy Bates, "Harry's Law"

Glenn Close, "Damages"

Claire Danes, "Homeland"

Michelle Dockery, "Downton Abbey"

Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"

Elisabeth Moss, "Mad Men"

WILL WIN Danes, as close to "certainty" as any one or any show in the entire 64th annual ceremony.

SHOULD WIN Danes

 

COMEDY SERIES

"The Big Bang Theory" (CBS)

"Curb Your Enthusiasm" (HBO)

"Girls" (HBO)

"Modern Family" (ABC)

"30 Rock" (NBC)

"Veep" (HBO)

WILL WIN "Modern Family," because it's as good as ever, and if good as ever doesn't count for something at the Emmys, what does? (Will get back to you on this question later.)

SHOULD WIN "30 Rock," for an inspired penultimate season -- but no one will complain about "Family" either.

 

COMEDY ACTOR

Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"

Don Cheadle, "House of Lies"

Jon Cryer, "Two and a Half Men"

Larry David, "Curb Your Enthusiasm"

Louis C.K., "Louie"

Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory"

WILL WIN Cheadle. Surprise! "Lies" may not be a great series but Cheadle's good, and the academy loves big-screen actors.

SHOULD WIN Louis C.K. At least he will one of these years.

 

COMEDY ACTRESS

Zooey Deschanel, "New Girl"

Lena Dunham, "Girls"

Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie"

Tina Fey, "30 Rock"

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "Veep"

Melissa McCarthy, "Mike & Molly"

Amy Poehler, "Parks and Recreation"

WILL WIN Louis-Dreyfus. She's beloved by the academy, and her series seemed to get some buzz as the weeks went by. That helps -- a lot.

SHOULD WIN Deschanel. Good freshman year, but maybe voters got tired of all the press references to the "adorkable one."

 

MOVIE/MINISERIES

"American Horror Story" (FX)

"Game Change" (HBO)

"Hatfields & McCoys" (History)

"Hemingway & Gellhorn" (HBO)

"Luther" (BBC America)

"Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia" (PBS)

WILL WIN "Hatfields & McCoys." Numbingly violent, historically questionable, but still some first-rate actors and some epic moments. Plus, the ratings were huge. The academy likes all three reasons.

SHOULD WIN "Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia." Written by Steven Moffat and Mark Gatiss (both of "Doctor Who") and starring Benedict Cumberbatch, TV adaptations don't get a whole lot better than this.

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