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Comcast/NBC: What does it all mean?
What will the purchase of NBCU by Comcast mean for people who actually watch all the various channels from TWC to NBC? (It was formally announced this morning.)
I guess that would be you.
Answer: Everything...and nothing (for now). But in time, everything. This is a very very dramatic deal - an historic one. Much is already working well at NBCU, but most notably, NBC is not. Much, much, much will change here, and you'll see evidence of that in the new year, particularly when program development for '10-11 begins. But I'm jumping ahead of myself here.
Let's go to the bullets. What will happen?:* Initially, nothing! Well, that was easy, wasn't it? Of course nothing will happen immediately. Nothing can happen immediately. The deal requires "regulatory approval" - the blessing of the Justice Department and the FCC - and while you'll hear much saber rattling on that front for months, including serious objections raised by various media watchdog groups, from FAIR to Media Matters and on and on - I would be shocked if this doesn't get blanket approval by all concerned. Sadly, the issue of "media concentration" was slain decades ago; just a handful of majors control everything you watch, and I won't insult your intelligence by rattling off the names. Simple fact is - when these deals go down, the dealmakers always get exactly what they want.
* But wait, Gay. Are you telling me that nothing is going to happen for 18 months, while the wheels of bureaucracy grind away? No - I'm not telling you that. In fact, my bet is that much has already happened, and that the new boss of NBCU, Steve Burke, knows exactly what he's going to do and how he's going to do it. But there's no rush here. That would spook DC, and employees. In fact, the way these things work is fairly predictable. A series of seemingly minor adjustments take place, mostly while Comcast absorbs the vast financial structure of NBCU. Comcast will then begin to explore - doubtless already has - "redundancies," one of the coldest words in the English language. Who is doing something for Comcast that is already being done by someone else for NBCU? Often, this involves so-called "back-office" functions, far out of view of the public. Slowly, but surely - and sometimes quickly and surely - people are eased out of jobs. Winner usually takes all, which is why people at NBC - already bruised and battered by two decades of GE's control - are nervous. * You're telling us nothing we don't already know, Gay. Tell us something new. OK, the new boss - the real new boss, or bosses - are Brian Roberts, head of the vast Comcast empire, considered a well-run cable operator, and Steve Burke. Burke an interesting guy: He was on track to run Disney, had a falling out with people there (Iger) and went on to Comcast. His dad is Dan Burke, a former chief of Cap Cities - once considered the best run TV operator in the country. Dan certainly taught his son everything he knows about TV, and that of course means Burke already comes in with a PhD in TV. He's not like the old GE guys, who didn't even know how to turn on a TV set. * So, what do you think Burke will do? Initially, he's going to defer to or pretend to defer to Jeff Zucker, who will remain as NBC chief. But the sun has set on Jeff. The new boss is Steve, and Z - as a matter of survival - will pay close attention to Burke's intentions, as well as Roberts.' Comcast bought this company because - despite what you may have read - NBCU is doing reasonably well. Where it's not doing reasonably well is in its most visible portion: NBC. After Bob Wright - a very very good CEO of NBC - left GE made a grievous decision with the network. Squeeze the buck...get rid of expensive programs...cede 10 p.m. to anything that will save us a buck...get rid of local news in NYC, the most important media market in the world because what's the point...squeeze squeeze squeeeeeze... Why do this? As a preparation for sale. But the squeezing has taken a dreadful toll. Comcast, and certainly Burke, knows the power of symbolism, the power of the NBC symbol, and knows that Disney and CBS didn't suck the life out of their symbolic franchises by turning 'em into TV potemkin villages.But I'd also bet they're torn here - Zucker has lowered the cost structure of NBC. Very few companies who just bought another company for $30 billion are willing to RAISE the cost structure.
My next post - cuz this one's getting awful long, isn't it? - Leno.
Tags: comcast , nbcu , jeff zucker , brian roberts , steve burke
