An autumn cool in September? More like a winter chill, forecasters say

Roosevelt resident Jerome Williams clears snow off the Roosevelt resident Jerome Williams clears snow off the sidewalk in front of his home while enduring the wind swept snow in Roosevelt at the tail end of a blizzard-like snowstorm 2014. (Jan. 3, 2014) Photo Credit: Newsday / J. Conrad Williams, Jr.

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Better enjoy the 80-degree temperatures while you can, as long-range forecasters are already talking about the possibility of "blasts of winterlike air" making "short, sporadic" incursions this September in the Northeast.

While September could start out sunny with above-normal temperatures, there could also be "a significant shot of chilly air that comes across the Great Lakes region and into the interior Northeast sometime in mid- to late September," said Paul Pastelok, lead long-range forecaster with AccuWeather, which released its fall 2014 forecast Wednesday.

That's because the jet stream is expected to dip to the south, much as it did last winter, carrying with it cold air from the polar vortex, a large, round, upper-level low residing over Canada, the Arctic or Siberia, said Jack Boston, also a long-range forecaster with AccuWeather.

This time, though, that colder blast could mean highs for Long Island in the low 60s and lows in the 40s, instead of late September's norms of the low 70s and low- to mid-50s, respectively, Boston said.

The thinking is that October could be "pretty sweet," with temperatures averaging as much as 2 degrees above the norm and any midfall "burst of snow" unlikely, he said.

November could start off "kind of mild," with another possible "Arctic air outbreak" later in the month, and even the possibility for snow, he said.

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As for December, the month "could get kind of wild due to the very active southern jet stream that is going to provide the moisture for bigger snowstorms," Pastelok said, with "a couple of big storms in December and early January" possible in the Northeast.

The forecast is based on at least six long-range computer forecast models, as well as extrapolations from other years with similar June and July weather patterns and temperatures, Boston said.

Confidence in this year's fall forecast is "a little higher than average," he said, based on a consistent pattern all year, including the winter's extreme cold and "unusually late start to spring."

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With that said, the Farmers' Almanac in Lewiston, Maine, is also looking at "unseasonably chilly air" in the Northeast, but the Almanac's call is for earlier in September -- the first two weeks.

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