Dan Janison Melville. N.Y. Tuesday January 26, 2010. Daniel Janison,

Dan Janison has been a reporter at Newsday since 1997.

Few if any pundits said at the start that Donald Trump would get this far as a presidential candidate. So for anyone tempted to predict that his campaign is about to crater, caution is advised.

And yet . . .

Trump spoke Wednesday in a televised interview of a need to punish women who have abortions, once illegal. Shortly after, he retracted it. Reaction followed from some who heard a lack of compassion and others who heard a lack of conviction from the bumptious billionaire.

Polls show Trump as of now would lose the general election, whether against Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. More immediately, other polls show Sen. Ted Cruz leads him in Tuesday’s Wisconsin primary, where 42 delegates are at stake.

False utterances by Trump have piled up to the point where many people could yet decide he’s just too unreliable for the job, even for a politician.

Trump dissembled again this week when he claimed a reporter for the Breitbart web site changed her earlier account of being grabbed and pulled by Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski, now charged with battery. The reporter, Michelle Fields, apparently made no such reversal.

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All that would make it a bad week for Trump — you’d think.

And yet . . .

The lessons of the past few months left one seasoned New York Republican, who didn’t want his name used, too gun-shy to predict anything about Trump.

“First everyone said this candidacy was a flash in the pan, that he would go no place,” the GOP operative said. “Then, in the early primaries, they said it was an aberration — that it was just crossovers (non-Republicans) voting in open primaries.

“Then he won closed primaries. Now he’s won winner-take-all states.

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“It’s unbelievable. It’s a phenomenon.”

And yet . . .

The shattering of a GOP unity pledge assures a ton of nastiness along Trump’s route to the nomination in Cleveland.

The daily drumbeat of controversy — reflected in both conservative and liberal news media and in power circles of both major parties — seems bound to take some kind of toll.

And yet . . .

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It is easy to see a downside to Trump through the lens of blue-state New York.

The onslaught of publicity against him has begun. Hillary Clinton’s first commercial, released for the New York primary, shows fast video glimpses of diverse New Yorkers.

Her voice-over states: “Some say we can solve America’s problems by building walls . . . banning people based on their religion . . . and turning against each other . . . ”

Right at that moment, the ad shows the viral video clip of somebody at a Trump rally sucker-punching a protestor.

And yet . . .

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Trump, who got 56 percent in a Qunnipiac poll of New York Republicans released Thursday, had boasted in January: “I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters.”

But will he win over more voters from here on out?

Never has there been a better time for Bob Dylan’s old dictum: “Don’t speak too soon, for the wheel’s still in spin.” No, not in this election.