How accurate is the groundhog?

Groundhog day puts the spotlight on these weather

Groundhog day puts the spotlight on these weather forecasters, Holtsville Hal, Malvern Mel, Staten Island Chuck and Punxsutawny Phil. (Credit: Handout)

Every year on Groundhog Day attention turns to the tiny beasts to see if spring will come early or if we have six more weeks of winter to look forward to. A local groundhog, Malverne Mel, began forecasting in 1996, followed by Holbrook Hal three years later. Here is how they and two other groundhogs have done since then, with the correct forecasts shaded. "Actual results" are based on temperatures recorded at Islip from the beginning of February through March 20.

Year Holtsville Hal Malverne Mel Staten Island ChuckPunxsutawney PhilActual results
2013 More winter More winterEarly springEarly springMore winter
2012 Early spring More winter Early spring More winterEarly spring
2011 More winter Early springEarly springEarly springMore winter
2010 More winter More winterEarly springMore winterEarly spring
2009 More winter Early springEarly springMore winterEarly spring
2008 More winter Early springEarly springMore winterEarly spring
2007 More winter Early springEarly springEarly springMore winter
2006 More winter Early springEarly springMore winterMore winter
2005 Early spring More winter Early springMore winterMore winter
2004 More winter More winterEarly springMore winterMore winter
2003 More winter More winterMore winterMore winterMore winter
2002 Early spring More winterEarly springMore winterEarly spring
2001 Early spring Early springEarly springMore winterMore winter
2000 More winter Early springMore winterMore winterEarly spring
1999 Early spring Early springEarly springEarly springEarly spring
1998 N/A Early springEarly springMore winterEarly spring
1997 N/A More winterEarly springEarly springEarly spring
1996 N/A More winterMore winterMore winterMore winter
How accurate are they?
Holtsville Hal Malverne Mel Staten Island Chuck Punxsutawney Phil
60% 55.5% 55.5% 44.4%

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