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NYC: Is Weiner's 15 percent a movement or a mirage?
Latest reports on the Marist Poll are in: Tony 'the Twitter' Weiner at 15 percent! And he's not even declared ! Better than others who have been campaigning! Runoff involving Christine Quinn, or someone else, if he jumps in! Oh the excitement!
Well, just to get grounded, consider this Associated Press report from May 2, 2001:
Two new polls out Wednesday show any one of the four Democratic mayoral hopefuls has a more than 2-to-1 edge over media mogul Michael Bloomberg.
No matter which Democrat he was matched up against in a hypothetical mayoral race, Bloomberg was favored by fewer than 25 percent of voters in polls from both the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute and the Daily News/New York 1.
Two-thirds of those polled by the Daily News/New York 1 also said that Bloomberg's success in building a multi-million dollar media enterprise does not qualify him to be mayor of New York. Bloomberg is considering running for mayor as a Republican.
Two-thirds of Quinnipiac's respondents said they don't know enough about Bloomberg to form an opinion of him.
And we know how that one turned out, scores of millions of dollars later.
Not only is it early in the 2013 contest, but no big ads have made it on the air. One spin on Weiner's numbers is that 100 percent of voters know who he is and only 15 percent would back him. Another could be that some voters really do resist and resent judging people on their personal foibles, no matter how narcissistic the object of their indulgence.
Weiner in his aborted 2005 primary run for mayor used in an ad a clip of Bloomberg stating his support for President George W. Bush at the NYC convention. Will Weiner's rivals use video of the Congressman's public lies about someone hacking into his Twitter account and the OJ-like vow to find the perpetrators? One can only expect it.
Will some street incident from here to November affect the numbers? Nobody can say. But redemption of a political career will involve more than sitting at home waiting for the election cycle to change, or jumping in because the campaign finance rules require that he use or lose his opportunity for matching funds this year.
Also, remember that Weiner is still led by Undecided, at 22 percent. Marist results are linked here.
And should he be elected, do we have any guarantee of what kind of photos will appear on nyc.gov?