Spin Cycle

News, views and commentary on Long Island, state and national politics.

ALBANY -- Democrat Hillary Clinton had a 7-percentage point lead over Republican Donald Trump in a national survey as they head into Monday’s first presidential debate at Hofstra University, according to the McClatchy-Marist Poll released Friday.

The poll gives Clinton the lead among likely voters nationwide including those who are undecided but leaning toward a candidate. The share of voters who say they are undecided is down to 2 percent.

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“Hillary Clinton has established a lead, but Donald Trump’s supporters are more committed to him,” says Lee M. Miringoff who directs the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “African-Americans, Latinos and women are rallying around Clinton’s candidacy. She also has the backing of young people, but the big question for her campaign is, ‘Will voters under 30 turn out?’”

The poll questioned 1,298 adults Sept. 15 through Tuesday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.

A Newsday/News 12/Siena College survey of Nassau and Suffolk voters finds Trump holds a 43-39 percent lead on Long Island over Clinton (http://nwsdy.li/2d5YyJz).

Trump held a 43-41 percent lead in Nassau County and a 44-37 percent in Suffolk County in a four-way race that also includes Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Jill Stein of the Green Party, according to the poll.

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Johnson received 8 percent and Stein 4 percent. Five percent were undecided.

The Newsday/News 12/Siena College poll questioned 833 likely voters Sept. 14 through Tuesday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.