Spin Cycle

News, views and commentary on Long Island, state and national politics.

Although Manhattan developer Donald Trump predicts he will win his home state, a second poll in two weeks shows Democrat Hillary Clinton with a comfortable lead in New York.

Clinton led by 24 percentage points over the Republican nominee in the NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll released hours before Monday night’s first presidential debate.

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Last week the Siena Polling Institute poll gave Clinton a 21-point lead over Trump in the state where Democrats have a 2 to 1 enrollment edge over Republicans.

“The Empire State is far from a battleground state for these two New Yorkers,” says Lee M. Miringoff, director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Clinton does well among the same voters she carries elsewhere. But, what makes New York different is the Democratic registration advantage and her ability to best Trump among white voters and men in the state.”

State Republican Chairman Ed Cox has predicted a New York victory for Trump based on the GOP candidate’s strong New York primary win in April, which propelled him more than any other state toward winning enough delegates to seal the nomination.

But a Republican hasn’t won New York’s Electoral College votes since 1984, when President Ronald Reagan won in a landslide against Walter Mondale.