NYC: Q poll sees de Blasio surge, launching new expectation game

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Spin Cycle

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Now, the Quinnipiac poll has Bill de Blasio surging to 36 percent among Democrats for the Sept. 10 primary, with Christine Quinn at 21 percent and Bill Thompson at 20 percent, and Anthony Weiner at 8 percent, barely leading John Liu.

If de Blasio reaches 40 percent when the actual vote is counted, he avoids a runoff against the next highest candidate. But by raising that possibility, Quinnipiac has also set up an expectation game that makes it a victory for the closest rival if de Blasio does not win the nomination on the first round or comes in second or even third after all. Short-term, such a poll could help the public advocate's fundraising.

Thompson's team has been consistent in its shouts of skepticism about the public polls, especially with regard to minority voters, while Quinn keeps hammering away at de Blasio as a flip-flopper, a strategy that if successful could make those inclined to support him doubt his reliability.

Anyway, since it's all a game of king of the hill -- de Blasio hammered away at Quinn for months while she was "in the lead" -- stay tuned for, at some point, something that reflects negatively on his resume, even a revival of a past controversy or two. Calls for the Q poll were made before Quinn's trifecta of editorial endorsements in the city was complete, so maybe momentum will look as if it's changing anew.

We're closer to a conclusion, of course, but this is still, as the current mayor might put it, a ways from over.

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