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Suozzi loses debate, poll says

Latest numbers show Nassau County exec failed to gain ground over Spitzer in governor's race

BY RICK BRAND | Newsday Staff Writer

August 8, 2006

Nassau County Executive Thomas Suozzi declared victory two weeks ago after his gubernatorial debate with Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, but a new poll from Siena Research Institute yesterday found that most of those who saw it thought Spitzer won hands-down.

Among Democrats who watched the debate, the poll found that 57 percent declared Spitzer the winner, compared with only 14 percent who thought Suozzi prevailed, while 29 percent didn't know who won.

"Spitzer was a clear winner by a three-to-one margin," said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll. "Suozzi may talk the talk, but voters think that Spitzer walks the walk."

While these results say Suozzi lost the debate, they did offer him a silver lining: that he'd beat GOP candidate John Faso 40 percent to 22 percent. Suozzi spokesman David Chauvin declined to comment.

But Jay Jacobs, Nassau Democratic chairman, dismissed the debate finding, noting that those who saw the event totaled only about 12 percent of the sample - "ridiculously small," he said. "You're taking a sample of about 72 people for the entire state of New York," he said. "If I were a judge, I'd throw it out of court." The poll, conducted by phone, involved 623 state voters who were interviewed between July 31 to Aug. 3. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.9 percent.

Spitzer, meanwhile, has expanded his lead over Faso, the former state Assembly minority leader, in the latest poll, to 70 to 17 percent among all voters - and among Republicans 45 to 34 percent.

"I think the poll is a reflection of name identification," said Susan DelPercio, Faso's spokeswoman. She said once Faso exposes the promises Spitzer has made to special interest groups that will raise taxes, the poll numbers will narrow. However, others said the numbers portend a GOP debacle that may exceed the loss of the late economist Pierre Rinfret, who got only 22 percent of the vote in the 1990 race for governor.

"We're in record territory," said Hank Sheinkopf, a long-time Democratic consultant. "People like what he [Spitzer] is selling. They see him as a reformer and voters are ready to give him a mandate because they want change. Even if Republicans had a huge amount of money, it would be very difficult for any negative attack to stick."

The new poll also showed the attorney general race tightening up. Andrew Cuomo, Democrat attorney general designee, saw his 26-percentage point lead over Republican Jeanine Pirro shrink to 15 percentage points, 50 percent to 35 percent.

Cuomo's Democratic primary challenger, Mark Green, leads Pirro 41 percent to 37, which is nearly even considering the poll's margin of error.

Head to head

How real and prospective candidates would fare in upcoming election, according to a Siena Research Institute poll.

Percentage of Democrats who say won last month's gubernatorial candidate debate*

*Asked of the 12% of those polled who saw it.

Thomas Suozzi (D) 14%

Eliot Spitzer (D) 57%

Other matchups:

Governor (General election)

70% Eliot Spitzer (D)

17% John Faso ( R )

Attorney General

50% Andrew Cuomo (D)

35% Jeanine Pirro (R )

President (2008)

42% Hillary Clinton (D)

48% Rudolph Giuliani (R )

Note: Survey of 623 state voters was conducted July 31 through Aug. 3. Margin of error: +/- 3.9%