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Simply Delaying the Inevitable

Ellis Henican: January 12, 2003

The U.S. is still likely to go to war against Iraq, although a little less likely than we were a week ago.

And the missile-launch date is no longer days or weeks away - but more likely months.

What a difference a couple of days can make!

Reason no. 1: Hans Blix, the chief UN weapons inspector in Iraq, reported on Thursday that his people have found no "smoking gun," no actual evidence that Saddam Hussein is hiding forbidden weapons.

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Reason no. 2: The world responded with one loud, "So why the big rush to war?"

Reason no. 3: Our staunchest and only reliable ally, Great Britain, urged the Bush White House, "Please, slow down."

And reason no. 4: All of a sudden, the president described Jan. 27 - not as a drop-dead date for the weapons-hoarder in Baghdad, but as just another day on a vague and distant march toward war.

Whew!

Let's not be naively hopeful here. War with Iraq will probably still happen, despite this little breather. And for the obvious reasons.

The bellicose voices in the Bush administration - Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz - are still out-shouting Colin Powell, the administration's one-man go-slow brigade. And the man whose opinion really matters here, President Bush, still carries the weight of unfinished family business. Whatever happens with the arms inspectors, whatever happens with the allies, whatever happens at the UN, the president is still clearly fixated on finishing off Saddam.

Who needs a "smoking gun," the president seems to ask himself every morning, when Dad's legacy is at stake?

And all the while, more American troops and more American hardware are on their way to the Persian Gulf.

On Friday, it was 7,000 Marines from Camp Lejeune, N.C., as U.S. fighter jets struck five air-defense sites around Tallil, 170 miles southeast of Baghdad.

But the president and his war hawks find themselves in a new box this weekend - and the walls are narrowing in on them. Hans Blix set that in motion.

Oh, the chief inspector had plenty of complaints about the wily Saddam. But the lead to the story of his interim report - especially outside the United States - was that the inspectors hadn't found squat so far.

Javier Solana, the European Union foreign policy coordinator, summed up the prevailing view, a view that makes U.S. hawks like Cheney, Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz nearly break out in hives.

"Without proof," Solana shrugged, "it would be very difficult to start a war."

And then Romano Prodi, the European Commission president, drove his own stake through an imminent launch date.

"War is not and must not be inevitable," Prodi said.

You could hear the grinding teeth from the White House.

Gee, thanks, Romano.

But wait!

American officials said they were passing along secret intelligence to the UN inspectors, high-level incriminating information.

After reviewing the offerings, Blix's people didn't sound overly impressed. They complained privately that these U.S. nuggets, so far at least, hadn't amounted to much. "Opaque" was the word one diplomat used.

Quickly, Blix's UN colleague, Mohamed ElBaradei of the International Atomic Energy Agency, was urging the Americans to put up or shut up.

"We need specific information on where to go and where to inspect," he said.

Who knew what the Americans might be holding back? But now was clearly the time to deliver the juicy stuff, if it exists.

"They are getting the best that we've got," State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said.

Boucher later had to amend that. U.S. spies, he said, haven't necessarily coughed up "every single detail."

But it was too late. A clear impression was left, if not on the American public, then certainly on our increasingly jittery allies.

Tony Blair, the British prime minister, sent his spokesman out to ask about the great rush.

"Weapons inspectors in Iraq must be given the time and space they need to do the job," the spokesman declared.

"January 27th, whilst an important staging post, should not be regarded in any sense as a deadline," he added helpfully.

Taking a deep breath, this is called in America. And not a minute too soon.

As the weekend arrived, even one of Saddam's main Iraqi foes was suddenly warning that a U.S. invasion could destabilize the whole Middle East.

"We reject the idea of an invasion and occupation of Iraqi territory," said Shi'ite Ayatollah Mohammad Baqer al-Hakim.

With allies like these - well, you know the rest.

Peace, anyone?