Slaves to the shaky science of sampling

On second thought, maybe the polls do lie.

At least they can be badly mistaken, as we saw in New Hampshire the other night. And one thing's for certain as this never-ending election rolls never-endingly on: The pollsters will almost certainly flub one again.

Or seven.

Because, despite the seductive science behind it, polling still demands cooperation of the human kind. People lie. People change their minds. People hide their prejudices. People try to sound smart. People can say they're planning to vote on Tuesday and go to the mall instead. People, especially around election time, are notoriously unstable and volatile, in the laboratory sense of those words.

So if the polls are saying "Obama Over Hillary by 7 points" - well, maybe he will be or maybe he won't. There are living, breathing people between here and there.

We can blame ourselves for some of this. We create the insatiable market for the polls. We're the ones who want to know everything. We want to know it now. Wait for the results on Election Night? Who are you kidding? How will the sheep know who to follow? How will the contrarians know who to chop down?

For decades, the pollsters have tried to explain their extraordinary science. They call 900 people, and glean from that how America feels about anything. It's a whole lot cheaper than asking 300 million, and what's amazing is often the pollsters are right.

"It was a total shock," admitted Scott Rasmussen, a pollster with a top-flight reputation for accuracy but who like the others totally blew the New Hampshire results.

He and his colleagues spent the week debating what went wrong in New Hampshire. Late deciders, too small a female sample, election-booth prejudices that cut against black candidates.

"But none of it," Rasmussen added, "explains a 10-point swing. "

What's great about the polls this year is that the candidates who have been slaves to them - Mitt Romney folding himself to Zogby and Rasmussen, Bill Richardson not quite sure what he believed - haven't done well at all.

Pollsters, it turns out, are pretty good at taking a snapshot at a certain point in time. But their science can't tell a leader what to believe - and never will.

The poll-slaves will always be a beat behind the public. And a beat today in politics can be a lifetime.

You don't need a pollster to understand that.

THANKS, GOV: Upstate gets a $1-billion economic-development package. Housing gets a $400-million boost. And Long Island gets a commission - to study property taxes. Not that Dowling eco guru Marty Cantor is jealous or anything.

WHY REPEAT FAILURE? Despite the loud harrumphs over Kathleen Rice's new second-chance plan for drug dealers, no one can say the old lock-'em-up approach has been a smashing success in Hempstead. Have you driven down Terrace Avenue lately? Give the woman points for fresh thinking.

ASKED AND UNANSWERED: After Silly String, what will the spoilsports on the Huntington Town Board consider banning next? Crazy Foam? Silly Putty? Rhetorical stink bombs? . . . If this gorgeous week was caused by global warming - really, what's a few disgruntled polar bears? . . . Wait, we're supposed to feel sorry for John Loeffel? The Hempstead building commish McMansions his cape without a permit, and now he thinks his assessment is too high? Poor baby! . . . BOBBY Bonds? How did Rube-y Giuliani make a dumb slip like that? . . . Now Spitzer wants to get along? Couldn't he have thought of that BEFORE he alienated everyone in Albany? . . . Do Judy Jacobs and Dennis Dunne have big-butt TV at home? Is flat-screen envy behind the legislators' tirade against the new 32-inch LCDs at the Nassau County courthouse? . . . Should Mike Bloomberg feel complimented - or insulted - by the latest Quinnipiac poll? Grateful New Yorkers don't want to lose him as mayor, certainly not for some silly distraction like the presidency . . . Can the LIRR really prepare for a Jan. 30 Amtrak strike that would cripple Penn Station? No, but what other choice does 'RR boss Helena Williams have? . . . Offering therapeutic support to a blubbering Britney, then blabbing about it to the media? That's Dr. Phil's idea of doctor-patient confidentiality? Britney's raging relatives have a point this time . . . Amid the Porsche scams and escort notices, there are some legitimate ads on Craig's List, right? . . . Quick show of hands: Who thinks the Shelter Island-North Haven ferry fares are too LOW? I mean, besides the South Ferry Company, now seeking a $2 one-way hike . . . Question for the Sunrise Mall Dognap Duo: Don't you feel guilty romping with that precious terrier pup you hustled out of the Pet Company? The little hostage knows what you did! . . . Why shouldn't bad-luck charm Jessica Simpson cheer on her quarter-boy Tony Romo as his Cowboys face our Giants? Sorry, Tony. Love hurts sometimes.

CAMPAIGN HIT PARADE

1 Hillary: "Big Girls Do Cry"

2 Barack" "It's (Still) a Man's World"

3 Huck: "Carolina Dreamin'"

4 Rudy: "Brother, Can You Spare a Million"

5 Richardson: "Trailer of the Pack"

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