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Suozzi's uphill fight

In his bid to become Democratic nominee for governor, he is far behind Spitzer, even in Nassau, poll shows

BY MICHAEL ROTHFELD | STAFF WRITER

March 7, 2006

A week after Nassau County Executive Thomas Suozzi declared his campaign for governor, even Democrats in his home county strongly prefer Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, a Newsday/NY1 News poll has found.

Suozzi would lose to Spitzer 51 percent to 29 percent in Nassau alone, despite his resounding re-election in November, and 60 percent to 14 percent in Suffolk County. In Suffolk, 58 percent said they need more information about him. Across the state, 82 percent of voters said they don't know enough about Suozzi to offer an opinion of him.

That illustrates the rough road the county executive faces and the many millions of dollars he'll probably have to spend to compete in the September primary, experts say.

"The biggest problem here is name recognition, but that can't be a problem in Nassau where they know him," said Norman Adler, a Manhattan political consultant. "If his performance in his base is close to pitiful, it robs him of the opportunity to say, 'When the rest of the state gets to know me, they'll like me.'"

The poll, by Blum & Weprin, shows Spitzer with a commanding lead over any challenger, Republican or Democrat, at this early stage, with job approval ratings of 69 percent after prosecuting corruption on Wall Street and in other sectors.

Democrats hope to take state government back as Republican Gov. George Pataki departs and mulls a presidential bid with 50 percent approval ratings, the poll found. Pataki's disapproval rating was 40 percent. A Pataki spokesman declined to comment on the numbers.

If a primary were held today, Spitzer would dispatch Suozzi among state Democrats, 60 percent to 9 percent, the poll shows. Jay Jacobs, Suozzi's campaign chairman, noted that he entered the race only a week ago. He predicted the polls will "change dramatically" as the race unfolds and Spitzer's air of invincibility fades.

"The conventional wisdom is that Spitzer is unbeatable, he will be the nominee, and Suozzi is just not going to be able to do it," Jacobs said. "People respond to that, and they like to position themselves with the person they think is going to win."

Spitzer would rout either of two Republicans in a November general election, the survey indicates. He'd beat former Massachusetts governor William Weld, 57 percent to 16 percent, and former state assembly minority leader John Faso, 56 percent to 16 percent. The poll shows voters aren't tuned in to the Republican primary: 70 percent of enrolled party members said they are not sure whom to pick. The highest number, 8 percent, chose Weld.

The Weld and Faso campaigns said early results are meaningless because the races haven't heated up yet. "The only poll that matters happens on Nov. 7," Weld spokeswoman Andrea Tantaros said. Spitzer's campaign declined to comment.

The poll also exposes another potential problem for Suozzi, who is courting moderate Democrats, though liberals generally vote in primaries.

His approval rating on Long Island among Democrats was 59 percent, not much better than his 52 percent from Republicans. Suozzi last month unveiled a county program to bring together abortion-rights supporters and opponents.

"I don't like Suozzi's opinions on abortion," said Harold Jacobson, 82, a Democrat and former dentist from Plainview who picked Spitzer in the poll. Jacobson said working with abortion-rights foes stigmatizes women who seek abortions.

Suozzi also hopes to convince voters that as an executive of a county he is better suited than Spitzer, a prosecutor, to be governor. But respondents said the job of state attorney general is the better preparation, 56 percent to 18 percent.

"He's decisive," Charles Donner, 68, a Democrat in suburban Rochester, said of Spitzer, whom he chose in the poll. "He's not afraid to take some action." Donner said he'd keep his mind open to Suozzi.

Joel Benenson, a Democratic political consultant, said surmounting Spitzer's lead is "not an easy task." "If you're Tom Suozzi, what you have to do is a lot of hard work that Spitzer's been doing for eight years ... and find creative ways to make news," Benenson said. "Suozzi hasn't done that yet."

Their choice for governor

A Newsday/NY1 poll of registered state voters asked whom they would vote for if the gubernatorial elections were held today.

Democratic primary

(Asked of registered Democrats)