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Bush, Blair face Iraq exit challenge

BY TIMOTHY M. PHELPS AND CRAIG GORDON | Newsday Washington Bureau

May 25, 2006

WASHINGTON - Responding to Iraq's startling call for a quick handover of military power, Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain and President George W. Bush will conduct a summit here today amid concerns that progressing too rapidly could lead to chaos.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki on Monday seemed to surprise Blair during the British leader's visit to Baghdad by saying Iraqi forces would take over security in most of the country by year's end, with the exception of Baghdad and Anbar Province, the insurgent heartland.

Maliki added to the pressure yesterday, saying the Iraqis could take over the whole country in 18 months.

But Blair and Bush are not convinced the Iraqis are ready for the job, some military analysts say, possibly setting up an awkward conflict for the two leaders abroad and at home. Both men are in trouble with their voters in large part because of the Iraq war.

The White House scheduled a highly unusual joint prime-time news conference tonight at 7:30 after Bush and Blair meet, and both will take questions. Bush Press Secretary Tony Snow cautioned reporters not to expect any hard numbers or timetable for withdrawal. Instead, he called the formation of a unity government "a restart" for Iraq that provides new opportunities to move forward and, ultimately, for the role of coalition forces to change.

Many in the White House and Pentagon don't share Maliki's belief that Iraqi security forces are up to the task on their own, defense analysts say.

"I don't believe anybody in the administration feels secure today about the ability of the Iraqi government to maintain security in America's absence," said Loren Thompson, a defense analyst with the Lexington Institute, a Washington think tank, who has close ties to the Pentagon.

Yet Maliki's comments pose a political dilemma for Bush and Blair. Each could help his sagging political fortune dramatically by, in effect, taking the Iraqi leader up on his offer to reduce the presence of foreign troops.

Maliki did not spell out whether U.S. and other coalition troops would remain in some capacity after Iraqi troops took responsibility for security. But Amatzia Baram, an Israeli expert on Iraq, said it appeared Maliki was saying that "by the end of the year [the United States and Britain] should evacuate all their troops from all parts of Iraq except for Baghdad and Anbar."

If that proves to be the case, Baram said, it would provide an extraordinary opening to the heavily armed militia of Shia firebrand Muqtada al-Sadr to take over the south of the country. Iraqi Army units likely would not challenge al-Sadr's forces, he said.

It is also possible Maliki intends for U.S. and British forces to stay on in limited numbers in the background, Baram said. But that, too, could be extremely tricky to negotiate because each country's generals would have to be convinced that their forces would be safe under the arrangement.

Maliki's comments appear to be motivated by promises the Shia coalition made to al-Sadr that the new government would order U.S. coalition forces out of the country soon after the election. Al-Sadr has been a bitter enemy of the United States and Britain, staging a wide-scale rebellion starting in April 2004.

"Maliki is surrounded right now by Sadrists" who are pushing for a quick expulsion of foreign troops, said an Iraqi close to top Shia officials.

A troop withdrawal also would help mollify the country's Sunni minority, which has supported the insurgency in part because of an antipathy for the foreign troops. But if anything, U.S. officials in recent days have taken pains to dampen expectations for a major troop pullout this year, even as Maliki appears to be giving them an opening to do just that.

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld told a Senate committee last week that he could not guarantee any major troop withdrawals this year. Instead, he warned that leaving too soon could create a haven for al-Qaida terrorists.

In front of the same panel, Gen. Peter Pace, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, testified that he didn't think U.S. troops could withdraw completely from any of Iraq's 18 provinces in the next three months.

At the Pentagon Tuesday, Brig. Gen. Carter Ham of the Joint Chiefs cautioned against turning over too much responsibility to Iraqi forces before they are ready.

"We want to do it as soon as we can, but you can't do it too fast," said Ham, who cautioned against "rushing to failure."