Toll taken on Bush policies

Persitent violence in Iraq, Afghanistan, and another scandal threaten to obscure sign of achievement

BY CRAIG GORDON | Newsday Washington Bureau

May 31, 2006

WASHINGTON - For a president battered by Iraq, a rare glimmer of good news raised the prospect of quieting his critics - and even bringing home some American troops this year.

But President George W. Bush's hopes for creating some hoopla around the naming of Iraq's first full-fledged government last week didn't last long, a victory lap cut short by the vicious cycle of bad news.

First, Pentagon officials said they are investigating charges that Marines opened fire on as many as 24 civilians in Haditha in November, an episode that some fear could rival the damage done by the Abu Ghraib prison abuse scandal.

Then U.S. commanders called in reinforcements Monday to deal with a spike in insurgent violence in western Iraq, adding 1,500 troops at a time when the Pentagon appears to be cooling toward the idea of major troop drawdowns this year.

Even Afghanistan is no bright spot for Bush, with a resurgent Taliban, bloody suicide bombing tactics borrowed from Iraq, and anti-American rioting during the weekend.

Now some in the administration are acknowledging the difficulty of convincing the American people that Bush's policies are bearing fruit in Iraq and Afghanistan, especially against the drip-drip-drip of grim developments and seemingly unrelenting violence.

"We have trouble breaking through the daily pictures of IEDs," said a senior administration official, referring to the term for roadside bombs in Iraq. "We've got to continue to work at it. It's hard."

This official, like others in the administration, believes the public is still fundamentally committed to Bush's plan for keeping troops in Iraq until they can achieve victory. They say the public isn't getting a full picture of Iraq's positive developments, such as the seating of its first permanent government, because of the media's focus on bloodshed.

But outside experts say the public is increasingly impatient for signs of progress - and without it could punish Bush with even lower approval ratings and his fellow Republicans in Congress with losses in this year's midterm elections.

Of particular worry for Bush, some polling experts say, is that episodes like Haditha could further erode support for the war even among dedicated supporters who begin to feel the cause is nearly lost.

"Things like this sort of keep poking at people. It's getting to be sort of a blur ... and that's not good for Bush," said John Mueller of Ohio State University, who has studied public opinion during wartime. "People who think it's a bad idea are going to continue to think that, and more and more people are going to come to that conclusion."

Pentagon officials say they are investigating evidence that at least some of the killings in Haditha will rise to the level of unjustifiable homicides and that several Marines are likely to face charges as serious as murder. The Pentagon also is investigating whether the Marine Corps covered up the incident.

Marines first reported 15 deaths and said they were caused by a roadside bomb and a later firefight with insurgents. But Pentagon and congressional officials have described evidence that Marines opened fire in homes and on a taxi, killing as many as 24, including women and children.

Also yesterday, Iraq's new prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, told Reuters that he was growing impatient with U.S. explanations that troops killed civilians "by mistake" and that he would investigate reports of a Marine rampage in Haditha.

The violence in recent days also is particularly troubling, coming as it does in the new government's early days. The new attacks forced U.S. commanders to call in reinforcements they had moved to nearby Kuwait - part of what was hoped to be a sort of down payment on an effort to scale back U.S. troop presence in Iraq this year.

Even some Republicans acknowledged the difficulty Bush faces in turning around public opinion on Iraq, particular with fall elections looming. Republican pollster Whit Ayres said, "it may be years before we see evidence that this was a world-changing initiative. It takes longer than an election cycle or two to change the world."