Research: Census Off on Hispanics in New York City

By Mae M. Cheng | Staff Writer

July 6, 2001

The number of people in many of New York City's Hispanic groups may be more than 50 percent larger than reported recently by Census Bureau officials, according to estimates of 2000 population figures released yesterday.

The estimates, released by the Mumford Center for Comparative Urban and Regional Research at SUNY Albany, show that the numbers of Dominicans, Colombians and Ecuadorians in the five boroughs are more similar to city demographers' population estimates than to Census 2000 data.

City officials and Hispanic community leaders had expressed surprise at the low counts of some Latino groups as shown in the state's Census 2000 data released last week.

They theorized that the way the question on Hispanic origin was worded on the census form contributed to many people writing "Hispanic, "Spanish or "Latino rather than a specific country of origin.

"It's better to get better numbers, numbers that will be more useful to public officials, planners and civic organizations, said John Logan, director of the Mumford Center.

Logan and his staff estimated the populations of 19 specific Hispanic groups in New York City using data found in an annual Census Bureau survey of some 200,000 people nationwide.

According to the estimates, New York City's Colombian population would have increased by some 30,000 over the last decade. Census 2000 data, however, show it decreasing by about 7,300 between 1990 and 2000.

Dominicans were the most severely miscounted group in the census, according to the estimates. The 2000 population of Dominicans in the city should have been 593,777 rather than the approximately 407,000 the census recorded, the estimates show.

"If we have an estimate that is one-third off or 50 percent off, then we're going to make mistakes about how to allocate our resources, Logan said.

Logan also made a pitch for the Census Bureau to adopt a method similar to the one he used to come up with adjusted population figures for the various Hispanic groups.

"They'll get much closer to the reality, Logan said.

The Census Bureau did not have an immediate response to the Hispanic population estimates because officials had not completed analyzing the Mumford Center's findings.

Last week, census officials said that the increase over the last decade in the populations of pan-Hispanic categories such as "other Hispanic and "Spanish is a trend seen nationwide and not just in New York City.

Officials said they would evaluate why this has happened but would not go back and assign more specific ethnicities to people who wrote in "Hispanic, "Spanish, or "Latino when asked about their Hispanic origins.