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Iowa, New Hampshire still crucial for candidates

Dan Janison

December 30, 2007

Months ago, many political pundits and insiders were singing a tune that went something like this: A dramatic speedup in this year's presidential campaign calendar would make the earliest primary states count less than ever before.

After all, the lyrics went, Iowa and New Hampshire and the other wintry "firsts" are followed on Feb. 5 by an earlier-than-ever, bigger-than-ever, do-or-die, Super-Duper Tsunami Tuesday. On that day, New York, California, Illinois -- and 19 other states -- will vote for major-party nominees.

Such an unprecedented primary deluge would favor the best-funded candidates, which for months meant our pair from New York.

Big money would buy Democrat Sen. Hillary Clinton and Republican Rudy Giuliani superior ground forces and broadcast ads in the most delegate-rich places all at once, rendering the earliest states a mere exhibition game.

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Whatever resonance it may have had, that tune has fallen off the charts. While it could all work out the way New York's major candidates desire, nobody in the local election business is daring to dismiss or downplay Thursday's Iowa caucuses or next week's New Hampshire primary.

The reasons: Momentum and electability.

"Iowa and New Hampshire have never been more important," says Robert Zimmerman, a national Democratic committeeman from Nassau County who backs Clinton, "because other primaries are so directly impacted by them."

"Momentum is critical -- as is the free media it generates," Zimmerman says. "It's a tremendous dynamic that shapes future races."

Two of the factors in a primary race are the issues and whether the nominee can best the opposing party's candidate, he says. A third, of course, is that "your brother-in-law owes a favor to a local politician."

Bill Cunningham, a seasoned public-relations consultant (and former adviser to Mayor Michael "Still Not Running" Bloomberg) says: "Some people like to go with a winner. If you lose four contests in a row, it would be hard to get that slice of the electorate" on Feb. 5.

Adds Jerry Skurnik, of the New York City political data firm Prime New York: "It looks like Iowa and New Hampshire are as important, or more important than ever."

And yet if you examine what the Giuliani camp calls the "50-state" view, the long-standing dynamic really does look like a case of the little-state tail wagging the big-state dog. No doubt some will argue next time for a single national Primary Day.

For now, Clinton remains the favorite Democrat on Feb. 5 in New York State, which will select 281 of the 2,075 delegates voted on nationwide that day. Delegates will be apportioned by the percentage of each candidate's share of the vote. In the last "Super Tuesday" contests on March 2, 2004, about 1,150 delegates were decided. That day John Kerry, the eventual nominee, won nine of 10 primary states, including New York, where he received 61 percent.

New York Republicans will pick 101 of the 1,113 GOP delegates to be voted on nationwide on Feb. 5. The party organization here backs Giuliani, and the rules are different from the Democrats'. It's winner-take-all, so the candidate with the majority of the vote scoops up all the state's delegates.

Even if the first few states still set the pace, this earlier-than-ever, bigger-than-ever, do-or-die, Super-Duper Tsunami Tuesday on Feb. 5 still promises a major change in the dynamic of the election.

With so many delegate-rich states decided then, both parties could well have their nominations settled, thus leading to the longest general election campaign in memory.

Who knows? That could get some more insiders and pundits singing another tune -- one about an independent third-party candidacy emerging in March, which only seems like a long way off.