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Paterson's Senate pick remains a guessing game

Dan Janison | dan.janison@newsday.com

January 7, 2009

If this were an election campaign, the cliched question of the moment would be whether Caroline Kennedy peaked too soon. But because Kennedy is seeking appointment to the seat that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton expects to vacate, the law says Kennedy needs only one vote - from Gov. David A. Paterson.

Still, it is common thinking in the Democratic Party that the 51-year-old daughter of JFK, who had barely dabbled in electoral politics before last year's Barack Obama campaign, fumbled the debut of her candidacy, or had it fumbled by her consultants. Her visits upstate and irresolute interviews with narrowly chosen news organizations shed little if any light on why she is suddenly in the fray, beyond a change in opportunity and personal choice.

Reinforcing this view is this week's Public Policy Polling survey that showed 58 percent prefer state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo in the seat - while just 27 percent want Kennedy. A Marist poll one month ago showed both with 25 percent. (Outside the state yesterday, a USA Today/Gallup poll found 45 percent of Americans would like to see Paterson pick Kennedy. Then again, what do non-New Yorkers care about who represents us?)

"It would have been a lot better to keep her candidacy under wraps until later on, closer to the time Paterson would be making the appointment, and make it look like it was the governor's idea," said one professional consultant who is not involved in the chase. "Of course, hindsight is always easy."

Some suspect shadowy forces were also at work. Some Kennedy backers privately used the term "Clinton surrogates" to describe those in the elected world who argued publicly that Caroline Kennedy's celebrity did not a good senator make.

Last year, she and her uncle Sen. Edward M. Kennedy delivered big endorsements for Obama's campaign against Clinton. But you will hear no negative words from the Clintons nowadays, not with Obama moving to make the senator his secretary of state.

Earlier chatter about family drama involving Cuomo seems to have faded - through the behavior of all players concerned.

On Dec. 8, Kerry Kennedy, daughter of the late Robert F. Kennedy, who was married to Cuomo until 2003 (and who, unlike Ted and Caroline, endorsed Clinton last year) told MSNBC that she and her cousin Caroline had "exchanged a few e-mails and I think that she's trying to figure out exactly what she wants to do. But I'm hoping she'll go for it."

A media-fueled Caroline-mania ensued. The question was posed: Were the Kennedys somehow tweaking Cuomo? He became AG just two years ago, has given the public no clear sign he's interested in the Senate, and insisted time and again that conversations between himself and the governor are private.

With all these moving parts, Paterson today delivers his annual State of the State address, focused on - oh, yeah - the state's fiscal crisis. Make no book for now on the Senate pick. We know from his nine months as governor that Paterson is long on personality but short on predictability.