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The Spitzer Scandal: Winners and Loser

March 13, 2008

SENATE MAJORITY LEADER JOE BRUNO: His Senate Republicans had in Spitzer a great foil. Bruno could make the case that his institution is the only check against Spitzer initiatives such as driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants. Now, Bruno is free of his biggest nemesis, but it remains to be seen if Paterson will be as determined as Spitzer to push Bruno out of power by campaigning to turn the Senate over to his former colleagues, the Senate Democrats.

SUFFOLK COUNTY EXECUTIVE STEVE LEVY: He was an early Spitzer backer in 2006, but loudly broke with the governor on immigration and just last week held a news conference to protest Spitzer's proposed budget. Though Levy has long insisted he's not interested in state office, he could mount a 2010 primary challenge for the governorship if Paterson's popularity .plummets.

MAYOR MIKE BLOOMBERG: The term-limited Bloomberg, who finally silenced speculation about a possible presidential bid last month, gets a boost in two ways: the buzz about him running for governor -- a new poll yesterday showed that 73 percent of voters think he'd make a good governor -- only increases, giving him added relevancy at a time when he'd otherwise be a lame duck; and the scandal could solidify the position of Bruno, one of the mayor's strongest allies in Albany.

ATTORNEY GENERAL ANDREW CUOMO: In a losing 2002 primary campaign for governor, Cuomo was accused of trying to frustrate the hopes of H. Carl McCall, who if elected would have been New York's first black governor. A primary against Paterson for the 2010 election might not be as beneficial to Cuomo as if he were running against a damaged Spitzer.

SENATE MINORITY LEADER MALCOLM SMITH: While Paterson helped make Smith chief Senate Democrat, it may be tough for the Queens senator to get out from under the new governor's shadow.

NASSAU COUNTY EXECUTIVE TOM SUOZZI: Spitzer crushed him in the 2006 gubernatorial primary, and Suozzi spent the next 16 months cozying up to the governor, even getting the chairmanship in January of a statewide property tax commission. While Suozzi said yesterday that he'll continue the commission's work, he may have less pull in the Paterson administration if Paterson is more city-focused than Spitzer.

SEN. HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON: She'll lose one superdelegate to the Democratic convention with Spitzer's resignation, which could be key in the close Democratic presidential nominating contest.

THE BUDGET: The state budget is due April 1, though lawmakers traditionally complete negotiations well beyond the deadline. Paterson will have to bring together Assembly Democrats, who want to raise taxes on the wealthy to plug a yawning budget gap, and Senate Republicans, who are averse to any tax increase. Other big issues -- primarily congestion pricing and school aid -- are interwoven with the budget talks and it remains unclear how Paterson will address those challenges. Perhaps more important is that he is respected by Bruno and Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, the two other men with whom he'll have to hash out the budget details.

PROPERTY TAXES: Suozzi heads a special tax commission created by Spitzer, and yesterday Suozzi and others said the commission's work would continue. "This commission was created by a governor from New York City who saw the need for property tax relief; the issue will not go away just because there will be a new governor," said E.J. McMahon, a senior fellow at the conservative-leaning Manhattan Institute.

SPECIAL TAXING DISTRICTS: Last month, Spitzer urged overhauling special districts, calling them "perhaps the biggest single bane of taxpayers." He called for eliminating all compensation for district commissioners and for having towns take over independent sanitation districts. Yesterday, Nassau Comptroller Howard Weitzman, who is on the governor's commission on local government efficiency, said he "fully" expects Paterson to continue the governor's agenda, and this has got to be at the top of the list."

SCHOOL AID: A common assumption is that Gov. Eliot Spitzer's resignation will throw budget negotiations into disarray, and that could spell chaos for Long Island's school districts; they are heavily dependent on the timely adoption of a state-aid package worth more than $2.5 billion to them alone. However, many political analysts believe Paterson will actually help move budget negotiations along, rather than slowing them down. "Remember that even before Spitzer became forever known as Client 9, he was a very unpopular guy with his fellow politicians," said Lawrence Levy, executive director of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University and a former Newsday editorial writer. "He would have had a very difficult time getting legislators to do anything they didn't want to do."

NEW YORK RACING ASSOCIATION: Officials do not expect any major impact on the deal worked out Feb. 13 that gave NYRA a new 25-year franchise in exchange for its relinquishing claims on properties including Belmont Race Track. However, one item that may be affected -- and delayed -- is the selection of an entity to operate 4,500 video lottery terminals at Aqueduct Race Track, said racing expert and Albany Law School professor Bennett Leibman. The choice must be agreed on by the governor and the heads of the state Senate and Assembly.

HOFSTRA UNIVERSITY: The school may see its profile rise as Paterson, law school class of 1983, takes over as governor. Hofstra Law Dean Nora V. Demleitner said Paterson was an active supporter of the school, attending events when he could. Demleitner said Paterson, over his many years in state government, has hired Hofstra Law graduates and student interns. He is the first Hofstra .graduate to become a state's governor.

Compiled by Reid J. Epstein with contributions by John Hildebrand, Dan Janison, Bart Jones, William Murphy, Sandra Peddie, Karla Schuster and Olivia Winslow.