McCain favored, but not certain, in South Carolina

BY TOM BRUNE | tom.brune@newsday.com

9:35 PM EST, January 18, 2008

COLUMBIA, S.C. - As voters head to the polls here Saturday in the first primary in the South, John McCain hopes that the New Hampshire-like weather in parts of the state will produce New Hampshire-like results, putting him ahead of Mike Huckabee, Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney.

McCain, the New Hampshire victor, is the favorite here, coming in just ahead of Iowa winner Huckabee in most South Carolina polls, with a comfortable margin in some.

But local pundits warned that the GOP presidential race is far too unsettled to be sure.

"I still think things are quite fluid," said political analyst Blease Graham of the University of South Carolina.

Several factors play into the uncertainty: the fact that evangelical voters don't seem to show up in polls as much as other voters, the late emergence of the weakened economy as an issue, and then there's the weather.

The turnout may be affected by a forecast of chilly temperatures and rain, with snow flurries in the uplands, home to the state's most socially conservative voters, who pundits say are more likely to pick Huckabee than McCain.

South Carolina is holding one of two GOP contests Saturday. Nevada has a closed caucus system, and only Romney, who left for Las Vegas yesterday, is actively campaigning there.

In South Carolina, McCain, Huckabee and Thompson have campaigned hard on top conservative concerns: anti-abortion and pro-family values, a strong military, and a hard line on illegal immigration.

While Nevada will actually deliver more delegates, South Carolina's primary traditionally has been the kingmaker, sending the winner on to the nomination, especially if voters here picked the winner in Iowa or New Hampshire.

But with the new compressed primary calendar, and the Super Duper Tuesday primary Feb. 5 of 22 states including New York and California, that role might be challenged this year, or even shifted to the next big contest, in Florida on Jan. 29, analysts say.

Still, the race here by most estimates is between McCain and Huckabee, each hoping to add to their momentum.

If one of them wins, he will get a boost into Florida.

McCain would get the biggest lift, since it would show he can win among conservatives, as well as moderates and independents, analysts said.

Huckabee would get a boost by winning a second state, but questions would remain about whether he has support outside a Christian conservative base.

Conversely, if Huckabee loses, his chances for the nomination drop because he could not win a conservative state.

Romney, winner of Michigan and Wyoming, remains a dark horse, despite having spent heavily on ads and made many visits here.

Rudy Giuliani took himself out of the running and could finish behind Ron Paul.

But the stakes are highest here for Thompson.

After a string of disappointing results in the earlier primaries, Thompson, a former Tennessee senator and one-time great conservative hope, bet his candidacy on this state.

A third or lower finish could, in effect, finish his hopes, possibly leading him to quit.

"I think he needs a win or show," Graham said.