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Bush could order thousands out of Iraq by year's end

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

July 22, 2008

BAGHDAD - Iraq's security has improved so much, even as U.S. troop levels have dropped, that President George W. Bush seems likely to order thousands more soldiers home by year's end.

That was not the widespread view three months ago when Bush announced there would be a temporary halt to troop reductions once the last of five "surge" brigades left Iraq this month. Many believed the country would remain too fragile to justify thinning American combat lines before 2009.

However, two weeks of observing U.S. and Iraqi troops in and around Baghdad, and Associated Press interviews with commanders and planners, suggest Bush will reduce the U.S. force by perhaps another combat brigade, or roughly 3,000 to 4,000 soldiers, toward the end of the year. More cuts seem possible next year, but scale and timing will depend on who is in the White House.

It now looks as though Bush has more reasons to resume the drawdown than to leave the decision to his successor. Not all the reasons are good news: The situation has deteriorated in Afghanistan, and commanders there say they need a substantial infusion of combat power and military trainers to curb the insurgency.

Politically, the Iraqi government is asserting its wish for a speedup in U.S. troop withdrawals. Yesterday, the chief spokesman for Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said the government hopes the United States withdraws by 2010.

U.S. domestic political pressures to leave Iraq are building, too. Barack Obama, who met with al-Maliki in Baghdad yesterday, says he would get all combat forces out within 16 months of taking office. John McCain is opposed to setting any timeline for withdrawals. That's what the White House says, too.

Extra reductions this year might be canceling plans to replace a combat brigade finishing its 15-month tour in Iraq this fall. Fresh reductions this fall would entail some risk of losing momentum toward a stable Iraq.

The Iraqi army, increasingly competent, is still weak in some areas, and Iraqi police are a much bigger question mark.

Shrinking the U.S. force further would go against the ingrained inclination of its commanders, who tend to be cautious, in part out of fear of sacrificing gains achieved at the cost of many American lives.

Despite talk from al-Maliki of ending the dominant U.S. role in his country, a number of his generals suggest that they are in no rush to see the Americans leave.

Still, Lt. Gen. Wajih Hammed, the commander of all Iraq army forces in western Baghdad, said it would be "a natural outcome" for all foreign forces to eventually leave Iraq.