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Democrats' race becomes pundits' fantasy baseball

DAN JANISON | dan.janison@newsday.com

February 15, 2008

The threat to Hillary Clinton and the surge of Barack Obama have created a moment in her home-state Democratic Party so thick with speculation, so laced with the thrills of political surprise and fear, that even normally levelheaded pros are scripting weird scenarios.

"You put the two in a room at the convention," said a veteran New York party strategist. "Will there be a moment where one of them reaches an epiphany and says 'You take the nomination ... '? No. You have to go to a third person ..."

"Gore!" the seasoned campaign operative says. "A transcendental figure. He's transformative. He keeps the young people. Obama's the VP. You make her Senate majority leader or put her on the Supreme Court. Nobody walks away completely happy in this scenario."

A hard-core Clinton loyalist, who like the first person spoke strictly on background, replies: "This has really become fantasy baseball for political pundits."

Not that insider vengeance would necessarily rain on New York Democrats should Obama win. His top campaign lieutenant, David Axelrod, has been through New York on past business enough to know that the elected and the selected of the state were going to go with adoptive daughter Clinton. Part of the off-the-record buzz in the party goes that should it ever reach the point where our junior senator's chances collapse, the Obama camp would gladly accept surrendering soldiers from the Clinton army - the only questions being who and how promptly.

Still, districts where Obama carried more delegates than Clinton may pose problems for those members of Congress who signed on with her side - before anyone expected the rookie Illinois senator to make it this far. Could they face challenges from ambitious locals who attack them as out of step?

At least Rep. Charles Rangel, the House Ways and Means chairman from Harlem (whose district's popular vote went for Clinton, though Obama ran very strong), has a possible hedge should his candidate Clinton's nomination go south: His wife backs Obama. One longtime commentator, who declined to be identified for fear of being embarrassed for jumping to conclusions, said: "Alma Rangel turns out to be smarter than the entire congressional delegation. Maybe Charlie Rangel's playing both sides."

Some of the more cynical party operatives are prematurely comparing Clinton to that recently defeated Rudy Giuliani, whose Florida "firewall" turned out to be made of starter logs. He too spoke of being tested and ready. As Clinton speaks of "solutions for America," you recall his political action committee called "Solutions America." But to equate them is sophomoric: Giuliani won no states; Clinton is still very much in the fight.

"Is she an underdog? Sure," said the Clintonista. "Is she done? Of course not."

Still, another Democratic insider said with a bit of gallows humor: "They're wondering if they'll still be around at the end of March. If this isn't a death watch, well, they'd at least like to know what they're doing in the intensive-care unit."

Then came one of those strange visions that seem to captivate the inside-the-party people these days. "Who knows? Somebody was saying that maybe, if she loses, she could run in a primary for governor against Eliot Spitzer in 2010."

This Clinton loyalist said, in a sober bottom-line: "The primary process will play itself out and it will in all likelihood break for one candidate or the other. ... Anyway, why would she want to be governor?"

Because this is a moment for all kinds of speculation, that's why.