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Giuliani's lead in New York diminishes

BY MARK HARRINGTON AND ERIK GERMAN | mark.harrington@newsday.com; erik.german@newsday.com

January 22, 2008

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JACKSONVILLE, Fla. - In one of the most ominous signals to date of a campaign on the ropes, GOP presidential hopeful Rudy Giuliani saw a one-time commanding lead in his home state of New York vanish in the face of a resurgent Sen. John McCain, according to two polls released yesterday.

Combined with the news that his support in neighboring states such as New Jersey and Connecticut also is eroding, the New York polls throw further doubt on Giuliani's strategy of gambling it all on a win in Florida.

"If these numbers are truly reflective of the electorate, then Rudy's dead," said Doug Muzzio, professor of public affairs at Baruch College in Manhattan. He blamed the slippage on the fact that "Rudy has been virtually invisible" nationally while focusing all his attention on winning Florida.

The WNBC/Marist Poll in New York shows McCain beating Giuliani 32 to 22 percent, followed by Mitt Romney at 14 percent and Mike Huckabee at 11 percent, with Fred Thompson trailing at 4 percent. Fifteen percent of 401 Republicans polled last week were undecided. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent.

A second poll, by Siena College Research Institute, found the former New York mayor trailing the Arizona senator by 12 points for the New York primary Feb. 5. Siena put Giuliani second, with 24 percent of support among Republicans, behind McCain's 36 percent. Romney had 10 percent, Huckabee 7 percent, and Thompson 6 percent. That poll has a margin of error of 7.4 percent.

Giuliani once held a 33-point lead over McCain in the Siena poll, the institute reported Dec. 10.

Giuliani blamed a competitive field for his slipping lead, and said he would remain focused on Florida, which holds its Republican primary Jan. 29.

"What happened is, it became a competitive race," he said during a stop at Daytona International Speedway, where he rode his campaign bus around the banked NASCAR track. He said all the candidates who recently descended here were "in a very similar situation" and called the race "wide open."

"It's playing out the way we thought it would," he said.

Giuliani's national campaign chairman, Patrick Oxford, at a packed rally in Ponte Vedra Beach, predicted Giuliani would regain momentum after a win here. "The national polls will follow Florida," he said, noting other candidates regained their polling numbers after primary victories.

Rather than focus on the New York numbers, Giuliani said, he'd prefer to focus on this state. "For us it's Florida," he said. "We'll think about everything [else] on the morning of Jan. 30."

The WNBC/Marist poll found Giuliani running virtually neck-in-neck - within the margin of error - against McCain in New York City and the surrounding suburbs.

Giuliani supporters rushed to his defense. State Republican chairman Joseph Mondello said he was "confident that Mayor Giuliani will be firmly atop the only New York primary poll that really counts," predicting a win in the GOP primary there.

As Giuliani campaigned from Orlando to Jacksonville yesterday, New Yorkers - pro-Rudy and not - were close by. He won an endorsement from Yankees outfielder Johnny Damon in Orlando. And while there, Giuliani's bus was met by about a dozen Florida and New York firefighters, led by former New York fire chief Jim Riches, who has criticized Giuliani's handling of 9/11. Riches, who lost his son, Jimmy Riches Jr., when the Twin Towers fell, said he won't stop until Giuliani "drops out of the race or answers my questions."