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McCain's goal to undercut Obama is a 2-edged sword

BY TOM BRUNE | tom.brune@newsday.com

October 7, 2008

WASHINGTON - On a slippery slope of sliding polls, Republican John McCain signaled yesterday he must accomplish a key task at tonight's debate: instill doubt about his Democratic rival Barack Obama.

Yet as he prepares to face Obama in the only presidential debate in a town hall setting, where the questions are asked by an audience of undecided voters, McCain will be facing a delicate balancing act.

As the two candidates roam around on a stage in close quarters, interacting with the kind of voters who tend to dislike negative campaigning, how does McCain go on the attack?

"It's a thin line that McCain has to walk, because undecideds and independents are easily turned away," said Jennifer Donahue, director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics. "And they take a lot longer to get than to get rid of."

The second presidential debate, a 90-minute contest moderated by NBC's Tom Brokaw at Belmont University in Nashville, Tenn., comes as the contest appears to be trending toward Obama.

Amid market and economic woes, McCain gave up Friday on Michigan, and polls show Obama has passed McCain (within the margin of error) in five key states: Florida, Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina and Nevada.

Analysts, including GOP mastermind Karl Rove, say polls show Obama with enough electoral votes to win, though all agree that could change in the four weeks before Election Day.

Tonight's format, in which two-thirds of the questions will be asked by the audience and one-third over the Internet, is believed to favor McCain. He won New Hampshire, and the GOP nomination, with his performance in hundreds of town halls. He is more comfortable in that setting than standing at a dais to deliver a speech.

Obama is considered to be better at big speeches before big crowds than in the more intimate town hall setting. Obama's best bet will be to stress the economy and health care while linking McCain to the Bush administration.

Rove and others say McCain must shake up the race. "I would guess that a character assault is McCain's only option at this point," said political scientist James Stimson of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. "It may well be risky," Stimson said, "but McCain is looking at a very high probability of defeat if he doesn't do something to reshape the game."

OBAMA

1 It's the economy. The financial crisis has driven voters to Obama because they feel secure with Democrats on the economy. "Obama needs to continue hitting away at the fact that the fundamentals of the economy are in such a mess that we cannot afford to send another Republican back to the White House," said University of Southern California communications professor Tom Hollihan.

2 Issues, not attacks. Obama must calmly, but firmly, respond to McCain's expected attacks by continuing to argue they are a distraction from the real issues and insulting to the intelligence of voters.

3 Show mastery. Obama needs to counter McCain's arguments that he is too inexperienced, especially in foreign affairs and on their differences on Iraq, by showing he knows his stuff.

4 No lectures. Obama must do his best to avoid even appearing to be aloof or too intellectual in responding to questions from undecided voters in the audience. He especially must avoid lecturing as he seeks to demonstrate his knowledge of issues.

5 No gaffes. While neither McCain nor Obama can afford to make a big mistake, Obama in particular must avoid handing McCain an issue that will help him get back into the race.

McCAIN

1 Focus on Obama. McCain must shift attention back to Obama, a tactic that worked in August. GOP political analyst Karl Rove said McCain must deepen doubts by "pounding away on questions about Obama's character, judgment and values."

2 Define Obama. McCain must offer viewers a version of Obama as liberal and inexperienced, tapping into what McCain sees as the nation's center-right orientation and concern about national security.

3 The McCain alternative. While questioning Obama's program, McCain has to present a credible alternative to both his opponent and to the unpopular Bush administration on the economy and other issues. McCain must stress his foreign policy experience, his bipartisan efforts and his "maverick" reputation.

4Shake it up. McCain must find a way to change the trend against him. An unexpected gambit tonight could fit the bill - but he also cannot do anything that would make him appear erratic.

5Keep his anger in check. As he takes on Obama, McCain must not lose his temper and must show less anger at Obama than in the first debate. "McCain has to simultaneously come across as critical of Obama without being overtly hostile," said University of Southern California communications professor Tom Hollihan.

- TOM BRUNE

WHEN 9 tonight, from Belmont University, Nashville, Tenn.

MODERATOR Tom Brokaw

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