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Terrorism still a key issue in presidential race

BY CAROL EISENBERG | carol.eisenberg@newsday.com

February 4, 2008

WASHINGTON - If Rudy Giuliani couldn't make terrorism a winning issue in this year's presidential contest, the temptation is to think that no one can.

He was the candidate, after all, whose whole campaign was premised on his leadership of a city under attack.

But political analysts say it would be a mistake to underestimate terrorism as a po- tential political motivator. They say national security remains on the radar of the majority of Americans - even if it is eclipsed right now by a stalling economy.

And many predict the issue will re-emerge as the general election draws closer, all the more so if there is a terrorist attack or major uptick in bloodshed in Iraq.

Part of the momentum may be a function of an implacable calendar, as voters face the reality that the successor to George W. Bush will have to figure out a way forward in Iraq, with Democrats and Republicans offering starkly different ideas for how long to keep a sizable troop presence there.

"The next president will have to make some very difficult decisions," said P.J. Crowley of the liberal-leaning Center for American Progress. "Do you stay on the same track that President Bush has charted? Is the central front in the war on terror in Iraq, or is it Afghanistan and Pakistan? The closer to November you get, the more people will demand specific answers."

The issue is also likely to loom larger as a result of the personal narrative of Republican front-runner John McCain, a former war hero and expert on military and foreign affairs who championed the troop surge in Iraq.

"It is in McCain's interest to stress national security affairs," said Georgetown political scientist Stephen Wayne. "The Democratic candidate will have to bend over backwards to point to his or her competency in these matters. Moreover, it is possible for things to unravel in Iraq or Afghanistan or, God forbid, [that we have] another terrorist attack, which will make national security as relevant as any issue, including the economy."

It was no coincidence that McCain started the new year with a Web ad on terrorism that showed footage of suicide bombings, carnage and Islamic jihadists carrying rifles. In debates with GOP rivals, he has distanced himself from the Bush administration by reminding voters of his criticism of how former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld conducted the war, and of how he championed a politically unpopular troop surge.

But Republicans Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee have taken a different approach. Both back continued troop presence in Iraq, but Romney has attempted to out-tough McCain by calling for a doubling of the size of the U.S. prison for terror suspects at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, while Huckabee criticizes the "arrogant bunker mentality" of the administration's foreign policy.

Whether any of those arguments will wash with a war-weary electorate remains to be seen, as polls continue to show that a majority of Americans oppose the war.

"I think a certain amount of alarm fatigue has set in," acknowledged Peter Feaver, a Duke University political scientist who worked in the Bush administration with the National Security Council. "But it would be a mistake to overinterpret that to say that, therefore, if there's another attack, Americans are likely to respond in a sanguine way," he said. "That's why I think candidates like [Barack] Obama and Huckabee are potentially vulnerable."

Democrats also have stressed their readiness to lead the country in crisis.

Clinton's contention that she is ready to be commander in chief "from Day One" is a not-so-subtle reminder of the potential dangers facing the country. Obama insists judgment trumps experience, noting his opposition to the war in Iraq from the start.

Both have backed troop withdrawals from Iraq, and have been vague on timelines. But when Obama contended last week that he would be a better matchup against McCain because of his consistent opposition to the war, McCain scoffed at the idea and said a debate with Obama over the war "will be the difference between victory and surrender."

"Without in any way denigrating or in any way being critical of Senator Obama, who I have great respect for, it's a product of his inexperience," said McCain. "And we'll be highlighting that. And inexperience, a lack of knowledge of national security issues, can only lead one to the conclusion that you would have immediate withdrawal from Iraq."

McCain noted that Clinton had a similar position and said he welcomed a one-on-one debate with her as well.