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Obama's big gains could still leave him short

BY LETTA TAYLER | letta.tayler@newsday.com

10:19 PM EST, February 16, 2008

OSHKOSH, Wis - In speech after speech since his eight-state winning streak last week, Barack Obama has promised to forge a new American majority that will redraw the political map.

"The question is, who can bring Democrats, independents and Republicans into a working majority to bring about change?" the Illinois senator, who is in a heated battle with Hillary Rodham Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination, asked a cheering crowd here on Friday. "That's what we're doing in this campaign."

But while Obama has made stunning gains, coming from 20 points behind Clinton in less than a month, he is far from cobbling together enough diverse voters to clinch the nomination, political analysts say.

To be sure, recent contests, particularly last Tuesday's primaries in Virginia and Maryland, solidified Obama's already formidable support among African-American, affluent, young and independent voters. But his inroads into Clinton's base of white females, blue-collar workers, seniors and Latinos have not gone far enough to ensure those groups will carry him to victory or near-wins in key contests March 4 in Ohio and Texas, or in April in Pennsylvania.

Even this Tuesday's primary in Wisconsin, where a new poll shows Obama leading, could prove a testing ground, with its mix of progressives who have favored him and blue-collar workers who have backed Clinton.

"I'm not dismissing Obama's chances," said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political expert. "But a candidate's gains in one state don't necessarily carry over into the next state. And we have seen that repeatedly in this campaign."

Obama's margins of victory in Maryland and Virginia were the widest yet in states where African-Americans were fewer than 4 in 10 voters, exit polls show. He took 60 percent to 70 percent of young voters and self-described independents, and nearly 90 percent of African-Americans in those two states. He split the white vote and won the senior vote of all races by 2 points in Maryland and 10 points in Virginia.

But Clinton still held the lead among white women, albeit by only 6 points in Virginia compared to 18 points in Maryland. And while Obama prevailed among college-educated white men, Clinton received more votes from less-educated and lower-income whites. Though Obama won the Hispanic vote in Virginia, that was only 5 percent of ballots cast.

Blacks have turned out in record numbers -- in South Carolina, more than double that of the 2004 primary -- but represent a smaller percentage of voters in Ohio and Texas.

While youths voted at record levels, a Pew Research Center study found the rise in turnout among 17-to-29-year-olds in contests through Super Tuesday was just 5 points higher than four years ago, up from 9 percent to 14 percent of ballots cast.

More critical, said Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center, are independents, who helped Obama win such mostly white states as Iowa and Idaho. But while they like Obama, he noted, "they also think highly" of presumptive GOP nominee John McCain.

National data from the Gallup polling firm still shows Obama "about tied" with Clinton nationwide, with most of his support coming from African-Americans and other groups already in his camp, said Frank Newport, Gallup's vice president. "He'd need to be getting about 60 percent to 70 percent of Democrats' support to be forming a new American majority, and we're not seeing that yet," he said.

In delegate-rich Texas, where a new poll gives Clinton an 8-point lead over Obama, Latinos could represent up to 40 percent of the vote. Ohio, where a new Quinnipiac poll gives Clinton a 21-point lead, is a stronghold of white, blue-collar and elderly voters, despite a large African-American presence in Cleveland. That poll also gives Clinton a nearly 2-1 lead among whites and almost as big an advantage among women and older voters.

But as Obama continues to build momentum, there is no denying he is attracting more blue-collar whites, as well as independents and even Republicans.

"Obama is the man!" exclaimed Barb Mittlestad, 69, a retired paper-mill worker who came to hear him Friday in Oshkosh. "He is listening to us and he will fight for us."

A Democrat, Mittlestad said she "might" have supported Clinton early on but became offended by her attacks on Obama.

Obama will also get the vote of Terry O'Donahue, 66, an independent from Fairchild, Wis., who voted for President George W. Bush in 2000 but was so fed up with him by 2004 that he wrote "Donald Duck" on his 2004 presidential ballot. At a rally yesterday in Eau Claire, the retired police officer, an avid hunter, said he can even get past the fact that Obama supports gun control.

"I feel a breath of fresh air with Obama -- he's new, he's not District-of-Columbia-ized," he said. If it came down to McCain and Clinton, he said, he'd support McCain because he doesn't like Clinton's "imperialistic ways, her my-way-or-the-highway."