Warner's exit a boon for Clinton '08 rivals

BY GLENN THRUSH | Newsday Washington Bureau

October 13, 2006

WASHINGTON - Former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner had been touted to be the moderate "anti-Hillary" candidate in the 2008 Democratic presidential mix, but now his stunning exit has created an opening for another would-be Clinton-slayer: John Edwards.

After raising $9 million and assembling a campaign team, Warner called it all off in Richmond yesterday, telling reporters he needed to spend more time with his family. "While politically this appears to be the right time for me to take the plunge, at this point I want to have a real life," he said.

On its surface, Warner's departure helps Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, who won't have to face an indefatigably upbeat Red-state centrist millionaire who isn't nearly as polarizing as the former first lady.

But his exit may be an even bigger boon to 2004 vice presidential candidate John Edwards, even though the former North Carolina senator is more liberal than Warner.

Edwards was the big winner when the Democratic National Committee voted to squeeze the Nevada caucuses into the January 2008 primary calendar between the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. The former North Carolina senator, who is running strongly in early Iowa polls, has the inside track on Las Vegas hotel and food service union endorsements, giving him a chance in Nevada despite Clinton's juggernaut fundraising operation.

"Mark Warner's departure confirms John Edwards as the most credible candidate to challenge Sen. Clinton," said Leo Hindery, a top New York City donor who backed Edwards in 2004. "The combination of his strength in the early primaries, plus Mark Warner stepping aside really changes things."

Another beneficiary of Warner's decision is Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh, a moderate whose views are closer to Warner's. "Bayh is the best positioned to inherit the Warner support because he's the closest thing to a centrist in the field," said Larry Sabato, a politics professor at the University of Virginia who follows Warner's career closely. "Edwards isn't a moderate. He's been running on poverty and left-wing issues."

But the big winner in 2008 just might be Mark Warner himself. By pulling out of a race he might have lost anyway, Warner is positioning himself as the perfect vice presidential pick, regardless who wins the Democratic nomination.

"He was always a better vice presidential candidate anyway. ... He's a bridgehead to the South," said University of Maryland political science professor Ronald Walters, a former Democratic operative. "He can give them some hope of winning Virginia, which no one else could do."