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Shaky ground for withdrawal

Increase in attacks and a struggling new Iraqi government may factor in keeping U.S. forces there

BY CRAIG GORDON AND TIMOTHY M. PHELPS | Newsday Washington Bureau

June 11, 2006

WASHINGTON - In the aftermath of the death of Iraq's top terrorist, President George W. Bush is summoning his closest aides to Camp David tomorrow to chart the way ahead. But the strategy sessions come amid growing doubts inside the administration that it can cut U.S. forces to 100,000 by year's end.

After a series of hopeful predictions for a major drawdown this year, Pentagon planners now are ratchetting back their goals with plans that would leave upwards of 120,000 troops in Iraq in December, compared with the 132,000 there now, say defense officials who have seen the projections.

Pentagon and administration officials insist the decision lies with Iraq commander Gen. George Casey, set to make troop recommendations in coming weeks. But gone from their public comments, amidst a sharp spike in violence and a slow and shaky debut for the Iraqi government, is talk of gradually reducing U.S. forces this summer.

As one senior administration official said last week, "There are [almost] 140,000 people there - they're not going anywhere soon."

More, not fewer, troops

Casey recently signaled that he thinks more troops - not fewer - are needed. He tapped a 3,500-strong reserve force in Kuwait and alerted a 3,500-member brigade in Germany after putting it on hold last month.

And instead of using Wednesday's killing of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi to hint at a possible drawdown, the White House insists the cabinet-level meetings at Camp David will barely touch on the question of troop cuts.

Administration officials say the sessions will focus on how U.S. departments such as Agriculture, Energy and Education can assist their Iraqi counterparts. Bush wants steps that could lead to results in 100 days, an official said - suggesting a White House reassessment in September. The rare Camp David session will include a remote link on Tuesday with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

In many ways, Bush's strategy is trying to make a virtue out of necessity, showing him focused on the nuts and bolts of helping the new Iraqi government instead of on the daily body count, officials say.

"The political situation is something we can have a real effect on - something the president, and the weight of the presidency, can affect," the administration official said. "If they blow up another mosque in Samarra, it's something not under our control."

But it's a strategy that risks Bush looking as if he's not focused on a question that matters to Americans: When can the troops come home? It also indicates how much Bush's ability to declare victory in Iraq depends on a largely untested and unknown Iraqi officials. And the meetings are a reminder that Bush has tried to bolster previous Iraqi leaders with reconstruction aid and other assistance, such as promises of more electricity to Baghdad, only to see those efforts fall short.

Several factors also are working against a sizable withdrawal - factors that show why some U.S. commanders are saying in private that this is no time to be reducing troops, several analysts said.

Role of Iraqi government

Casey's initial hope of "fairly significant" reductions this year was based on an Iraqi government taking shape in March, not this past Wednesday. Even if some U.S. combat forces leave, Iraqi forces still need trainers, logistics support, air power and other things only U.S. troops can provide, Pentagon officials note.

Still, despite the initial caution expressed by Bush after al-Zarqawi was killed, the White House now believes the combination of his death and completion of the new government provides a serious window of opportunity for the prime minister.

Sunni tribesmen hostile to the United States but interested in negotiating were afraid to take that chance while al-Zarqawi was alive. His group had murdered 11 tribal chiefs who had spoken to the United States.

According to Amatzia Baram, a well-respected Israeli expert on Iraq, secret negotiations with hard-line Sunni leaders are taking place and will become easier now. With the cabinet finally in place, Baram said, "this is an opportune moment. If the government shows reasonable flexibility, maybe it can work."

Questioning internal forces

But questions were raised last week about the vital new member of the cabinet, Interior Minister Jawad al-Bolani. A former army engineer with no training in police or internal security, the two critical functions of the Interior Ministry, he was unknown outside Iraq before Thursday.

While touted as a political independent, an Iraqi Shia source said al-Bolani has been close to Muqtada al-Sadr, a Shia enemy of the United States. In addition, al-Bolani participated in a now largely defunct political party founded by Ahmad Chalabi, the former expatriate who fell out with the United States over alleged ties to Iranian intelligence.

Just six weeks ago, during negotiations over the new cabinet, al-Bolani joined the Fathila (Virtue) Party, which nominated him for the job. Then, he resigned from Fathila, apparently to join the government as an "independent." Now he faces the ticklish task, proclaimed as a key goal by al-Maliki in recent speeches, of ridding the Interior Ministry of Shia militias accused of randomly assassinating Sunnis. One of those militias owes allegiance to al-Sadr.

Bush officials are particularly high on al-Maliki as a take-charge figure. He is, in some ways, Bush's best, if not last, hope for success - and bringing home troops - but early signs aren't all encouraging.

For instance, if al-Bolani is up to the task of taking back control of the Interior for the government, he will need complete support from al-Maliki. So far, al-Maliki has not matched his words with action, Baram said.

"The prime minister's resolve is so crucial," Baram said, "and I haven't yet seen anything."