by Johanna Neuman

For more than four years, the Bush White House has run against any changes in the law that would allow gay Americans -- even his vice president's daughter -- to marry.

Under the guidance of political maestro Karl Rove, George W. Bush even ran against gay rights in his 2004 re-election bid. The strategy: push a constitutional amendment to define marriage as a union between a man and a woman and thereby stir the base of evangelicals to the polls. It worked.

Now, four years later, the climate has changed, (as the Swamp's colleague, Johanna Neuman is reporting at Countdown to Crawford ). Both Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain, while not embracing the still-politically-radioactive concept of gay marriage, support rights.

Obama and his running mate Joe Biden back civil unions, along with spousal visits in hospitals, insurance benefits as partners and rights of inheritance and adoption. At some political cost, McCain voted against the Bush administration's proposal for a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, arguing that states, not judges or the federal government, should make these decisions. He also backs legislation to ban workplace discrimination against gays.

Both presidential campaigns have reached out to gay Americans, seeking their votes. Even Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, an evangelical, sounds inclusive toward gays. "(N)o one would ever propose, not in a McCain-Palin administration, to do anything to prohibit, say, visitations in a hospital or contracts being signed," she said during the vice presidential debate. That's one reason the Log Cabin Republicans, the largest gay Republican organization, who did not endorse Bush four years ago, are backing McCain-Palin this year.

But Bush remains passionately opposed to any movement on the issue.

by Mark Silva

President Bush, meeting with representatives of the world's major industrial nations, maintains that they are making concerted efforts to confront a global freezing of lending that is dragging down markets worldwide.

"I'm confident that the world's major economies can overcome the challenges we face,'' Bush said in an address from the Rose Garden this morning, his second in two days aimed at delivering a message of action and confidence.

"There have been moments of crisis in the past when powerful nations turned their energies against each other, or sought to wall themselves off from the world,'' Bush said. "This time is different. The leaders gathered in Washington this weekend are all working toward the same goals. We will stand together in addressing this threat to our prosperity. We will do what it takes to resolve this crisis. And the world's economy will emerge stronger as a result.''

Bush, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice met this morning in the West Wing with the finance ministers of the other G-7 nations - Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy and Japan. They also met with the president of the Eurogroup of countries, the directors of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank and chairman Financial Stability Forum.

"In my country, it is important for our citizens to have understood that which affects Wall Street affects Main Street as well,'' Bush said in the Rose Garden following the G-7 finance ministers' meeting. "And all of us recognize that this is a serious global crisis and, therefore, requires a serious global response for the good of our people...

"The United States has a special role to play in leading the response to this crisis. That is why I convened this morning's meeting here at the White House, and that is why our government will continue using all the tools at our disposal to resolve this crisis. At our meeting, Secretary Paulson and I described the bold actions the United States has taken over the past few weeks:

"To help thaw frozen markets, the Federal Reserve has taken unprecedented measures to boost liquidity,'' he said. "The Securities and Exchange Commission has cracked down on abusive practices in the markets. Federal agencies have significantly expanded the amount of money insured in bank and credit union accounts. My administration worked with the Congress to pass legislation authorizing the government to recapitalize banks by purchasing troubled assets or providing insurance or purchasing equity in financial institutions. These extraordinary efforts are being implemented as quickly and as effectively as possible.

"The benefits will not be realized overnight,'' he said. "But as these actions take effect, they will help restore stability to our markets and confidence to our financial institutions.''

by Frank James

The latest National Journal's Political Insider's poll indicates that Washington types believe Sen. Barack Obama is poised to win the presidency.

Among Democrats 93 percent said Obama had a high chance of winning. Among Republicans 80 percent said Obama's chances for taking the White House were high.

While some of the Republicans and Democrats in the survey group cautioned that the race wasn't over and that the extraordinary circumstances this year (a black candidate) make it unpredictable, the trends all favor Obama.

The anonymous quotes after the poll results come from the insiders who, for obvious reasons, don't want their names attached to the statements, especially on the Republican side.

Q: On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Democrats to win the White House in November?

10. "I love my crazy uncle. I don't like anybody else's."

by Jill Zuckman

PHILADELPHIA -- Barnstorming to get out the vote across this pivotal Pennsylvania city, Barack Obama paused Saturday to thank John McCain.

"I want to acknowledge that Senator McCain tried to tone down the rhetoric at his town hall meeting yesterday," Obama said, referring to a raucous gathering where voters urged McCain to get tough on Obama. "I appreciated his reminder that we can disagree while still being respectful of each other."

And Obama also noted that McCain served the country with honor "and deserves our thanks for that." McCain is a decorated Vietnam veteran who was held as a prisoner of war in Hanoi for five and a half years.

Voters at McCain's town hall meetings and rallies have gotten increasingly riled up, demanding that McCain go after Obama harder. One person said he was scared of Obama and another called Obama an Arab terrorist yesterday. McCain told them that Obama is a decent family man and that he just disagreed with him.

"I want everyone to be respectul," McCain told the crowd yesterday in Minnesota. "And let's make sure we are because that's the way politics is done in America."

Still, as Obama hit the first of four Philadelphia rallies, he couldnt resist following his thanks to McCain with a dig: "But when it comes to the economy and what families here in Pennsylvania are going through, sen McCain still doesn't get it."

McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds responded: "The tone of this election is not fueling voter outrage, it's that Americans are frustrated knowing that Barack Obama's plans to raise taxes during a down economy and his proposal for a trillion dollars in new government spending are the absolute wrong answers to our economic crisis."

by Frank James

Little late to the party on this but it's still worth noting. Christopher Buckley, son of the late conservative writer William F. Buckley Jr. has endorsed Sen. Barack Obama.

With typical Buckleyan wit, the former Esquire editor and White House speech writer (Bush 41) makes clear he hasn't jumped ship and become a liberal. Instead his decision springs more from his disappointment with Sen. John McCain than any embrace of Obama's guiding political philosophy or agenda.

Here's an excerpt from the Daily Beast:

As to the particulars, assuming anyone gives a fig, here goes:

A year ago, when everyone, including the man I'm about to endorse, was caterwauling to get out of Iraq on the next available flight, John McCain, practically alone, said no, no--bad move. Surge. It seemed a suicidal position to take, an act of political bravery of the kind you don't see a whole lot of anymore.

by Jill Zuckman

CHILLICOTHE, Ohio - The southeastern corner of this political showdown state, with its heavily Appalachian flavor is a place where presidential candidates need to convince voters that they can be trusted.

Folks living here among the rolling hills love their guns, their families and their God. And they don't appreciate politicians who they think would mess with any of those things.

So when Gov. Ted Strickland introduced Sen. Barack Obama here Friday morning, he didn't just extol Obama's virtues and plans. He told voters what the Democratic nominee would not do if elected president: He would not take their guns away.

"If you are a sportsman, if you are a gun owner, if you are someone who honors and respects the Second Amendment, you have nothing to fear from Barack Obama," said Strickland, who describes himself as a son of Appalachia.

That assertion, he told the crowd, was based on "direct conversations" he has had with Obama.

As Obama battles against Sen. John McCain in Ohio, he is striking a populist tone while stressing the economic woes plaguing the region and the nation. But while he's on the offense economically, he is also playing defense culturally.

Many people here still remember Obama's gaffe last spring at a fundraiser when he talked about the small towns in Pennsylvania where the jobs have been gone for 25 years and nothing had come in to replace them.

by Mark Silva

KIAWAH ISLAND, S.C. - For President Bush, the end is near. On Sunday, he will have 100 days left in his presidency.

He warned everyone that he would be "sprinting'' to the finish, but nobody had an international financial meltdown in mind when Bush vowed that he would be working to the very end.

Bush may be down in the polls - with 25 percent public approval, his all-term low, in the latest Gallup Poll - but he still finds comfort in certain quarters. The Simpsonville Little League Softball team, the world champions, where happy to see him.

The team greeted Bush at his landing Friday night at the Charleston Air Force Base. Another couple hundred people were assembled behind a fence on the tarmac on an overcast evening at the end of a rainy day - one assumes this was the family and extended family of the 2008 World Series of Little League Softball champions.

Bush had seen some admirers along the road on his way out of South Florida on this day, people standing on corners along the route of the presidential motorcade in Coral Gables and waving American flags and cheering - the supporters far outnumbering the few protesters along the motorcade route, quite the opposite ratio of that most recent Gallup Poll on presidential approval, which put Bush just one point above Richard Nixon's all-time low (24 points) before resignation in 1974 and jut three points above Harry Truman's low in 1952, the all-time low in Gallup surveys.

And, in the aftermath of three tortuous weeks of economic turmoil, the president was ready for some crowd-love. He and first Lady Laura Bush had gone separate ways in their travels this day, the pair splitting up at Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland in the morning and reuniting in Charleston in the evening. And the two worked the crowd from left to right before posing with the ball team for photographs - and then taking off by helicopter for a Republican Nation Committee fundraiser on Kiawah Island.

The party was raising $1.4 million at the evening fundraiser at the Sanctuary at Kiawah Island, a low-lying . Marine One, the president's helicopter, landed on The Ocean Course, a golf course set by the open sea, and then rode by motorcade to the resort hotel.

It's safe to say that the 100 people assembled at the hotel were as happy to see the president as the softball team was, but the fundraiser was closed to the press, so we'll take it on faith.

By day's end, the president was returning to Washington, arriving well after dark, and preparing for an early morning meeting with the finance ministers of the G-7 nations this morning in the West Wing.

And then, another Rose Garden appearance just after 8 am EDT to offer a nation some reassurance in the midst of the worst stock market turmoil in decades.

The financial crisis was awaiting him in Washington, upon his return from the fans in South Carolina. That 25 percent approval factor may come back into play this morning, with not all Americans as happy to see the president this morning as was the Simpsonville Little League Softball team.

.

By Paul West

Every so often, luck and circumstance give birth to an accidental congressman or senator, a politician who lands in Washington mainly by being in the right place at the right time.

Once in a very long while, those accidents come in droves.

That's what happened when Ronald Reagan's 1980 landslide helped turn a six-pack of Republican non-entities into U.S. senators. None ever won a Senate election again, and their now-forgotten names (Jim Abdnor, Mark Andrews, Jeremiah Denton, John East, Paula Hawkins, Mack Mattingly) are just the answer to a trivia question. But while in office, the one-term wonders helped Reagan engineer big changes in the federal government.

Today, a similar trend may be on the horizon. This time it's Democratic candidates who have the good fortune to be running with a strong wind at their back.

Even before the financial crisis became the overwhelming factor in the election, a top aide to John McCain was calling 2008 the worst environment in decades for Republican candidates. When times are bad, voters punish the party that holds the White House, and Barack Obama isn't the only Democrat who could benefit.

by James Oliphant

From the New York Times:

A legislative committee investigating Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, the Republican vice presidential candidate, issued a report Friday night that found she unlawfully abused her authority by firing the state's public safety commissioner.

Ms. Palin has said she acted appropriately. She has proffered several reasons for Mr. Monegan's dismissal, including that he was insubordinate and did not support her budget reforms, and that she wanted to steer the state's Public Safety Department in a new direction.

by Mark Silva

Today, at the end of a long and tumultuous week on the campaign trail. Republican John McCain appeared to want to have it two ways with his Democratic rival, Barack Obama:

At once slamming Obama with a new TV ad connecting the Illinois senator with an old Sixties radical, a professor now in Chicago, while telling an audience that Obama is a "decent'' man.

McCain, the senior senator from Arizona, down in the polls in the closing weeks of the presidential contest, aired a new TV ad today focusing on William Ayers, the education professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago and onetime leader of the militant Weather Underground protest group. Obama has served on civic boards with Ayers, and attended a small reception for his first state legislative campaign at Ayers' home in 1995. The Obama campaign has said he didn't know of Ayers' past at the time, but Obama since has spoken out against Ayers' old protest tactics.

"When convenient, he worked with terrorist Bill Ayers,'' the McCain campaign ad declares. "When discovered, he lied."

Yet, on the same day, McCain sought to tamp down some of the anger that has been surfacing at his campaign rallies lately, as supporters warn him that he is not taking a tough enough tack on Obama. At a town hall-styled campaign appearance in Minnesota today, McCain softly stated to his audience that Obama "is a person that you do not have to be scared of as president of the United States." That elicited some audible boos.

Yet McCain's new ad, following a stream of nearly all-negative campaign ads, is his roughest yet. It uses Obama's ties to Ayers to allege that Obama has "blind ambition" and "bad judgment," and, thus, can't be trusted during an economic crisis. The ad states: "In crisis, we need leadership.''

Meanwhile, at the Lakeville, Minn., town hall meeting, McCain explained that his differences with Obama are over "rhetoric and record," not character, and the Republican nominee for president faced boos from his own supporters when he said: "I have to tell you, he is a decent person and a person that you do not have to be scared of as president of the United States...

""I don't mean that has to reduce your ferocity," McCain said. "I just mean to say you have to be respectful."

In an interview with Philadelphia-based radio talk show host Michael Smerconish on Thursday, Obama said that that when he met Ayers in the mid-1990s Ayers was teaching education the University of Illinois. "I was sitting on this board with a whole bunch of conservative businessmen and civic leaders and he was one of the people who was on this board," Obama said of the Chicago Annenberg Challenge, a nonprofit educational group. "Ultimately I ended up learning about the fact that he had engaged in this reprehensible act 40 years ago, but I was eight years old at the time and I assumed that he had been rehabilitated."

by Frank James

Two new ads today from the Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign -- one for TV, the other for the web -- both mention Sen. Barack Obama's ambition using modifiers like "blind" and "vast" to describe it. (Are they saving "reckless" for closer to Election day?)

Seems like it takes a fairly out-sized ambition for anyone to believe he or she should be president of the United States, the most powerful person in the world, in the first place. A huge ambition isn't so much a disqualifier for the job as a prerequisite.

Indeed, ambition is a quality Americans tend to admire. What parent doesn't want his or her child to be ambitious? What organization doesn't want to set more ambitious goals?

We are an ambitious nation which likes its ambitions large; vast even. Manifest Destiny. Putting humans on the Moon. Fielding the most powerful military the world has ever seen.

If nothing else, it's usually the lack of ambition, an ambition deficit, that Americans find abhorrent.

That's true especially when it comes to African-Americans. They're often criticized for allegedly not having enough ambition.

Now an African-American running for president has too much of it. What's that about?

There's something very Rovian about this. As most students of politics knows, Karl Rove, President Bush's ace political strategist, delights in taking a candidate's strength and making it a liability. Just ask John Kerry about 2004. Or McCain about 2000.

So in this case Obama's ambition becomes not something parents should point to as a model for their children but a cause for concern, something to be found objectionable.

by Frank James

David Gergen, sometime presidential adviser and CNN analyst, was on Steven Colbert's show last night and had advice for Sen. John McCain -- the Republican presidential nominee needs to "rein in" his attacks as well as those by running mate Gov. Sarah Palin on Sen. Barack Obama.

"They used to call it rabble rousing" said Gergen, who teaches at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government.

The Huffington Post is also reporting that former McCain strategist John Weaver is warning the Republican nominee as well.

"People need to understand, for moral reasons and the protection of our civil society, the differences with Senator Obama are ideological, based on clear differences on policy and a lack of experience compared to Senator McCain," Weaver said. "And from a purely practical political vantage point, please find me a swing voter, an undecided independent, or a torn female voter that finds an angry mob mentality attractive."

As my colleague Jim Oliphant wrote earlier, there are very real concerns that the kind of animosities now being stoked for political purposes could lead to violence against Obama or others.

Before Harold Washington was elected Chicago's first black mayor in 1993, I'm told there were similar worries and tensions. I wonder if the McCain campaign will start running "Vote for McCain ... Before it's too late" ads like those run by Washington's rival, Bernie Epton?

I moved to Chicago a week or so after that election. The cabbie who drove me into the Loop from O'Hare Airportsaid if the campaign had gone a week longer there would have been blood in the streets. If this presidential campaign stays on its current trajectory, many of us may find ourselves uttering something similar.

by Mark Silva

CORAL GABLES, Fla. - Sitting near the home of Sergio Pino, a Miami-area developer playing host to a $500,000 fundraiser for the Republican Party's congressional candidates this afternoon in the gated, mansion-studded community of Cocoplum:

This is the first of two fundraisers that President Bush is attending for his party's candidates today. About 90 people are attending the fundraiser here in Cocoplum, which is off-limits to the reporters traveling with Bush. The second, tonight at the Sanctuary at Kiawah Island in South Carolina, will raise $1.4 million for the Republican National Committee, with about 100 people expected at the evening event.

The president's party, for sure, is fighting against the stream in an economy which, as the president conceded in the Rose Garden this morning, is causing anxiety upon anxiety for the American people. Bush plans another Rose Garden appearance Saturday morning to offer yet more assurances that the government is taking action.

Aboard Air Force One en route to Florida, the president's press secretary was asked if Bush has voiced any concern about the political fortunes of Republican presidential nominee John McCain in recent weeks.

"The president is convinced that John McCain still has time to close up this race,'' Dana Perino said, noting that Bush was down once in his own race, she noted, and "came back to win.''

Asked about Bush's "communications strategy'' in the economic crisis underway, Perino said: "We know that people are very anxious'' about what is happening. But Congress has acted on the rescue that the White House sought and Treasury is "moving at all deliberate speed.... The federal government is going to do what it takes.''

"If he wasn't talking all the time... the questions from the media would be, why isn't he talking?'' Perino correctly said of the repeat appearances by the president. "It is important that they know the leader of the free world has his full attention focused'' on the problem.

This morning, she said of his Rose Garden appearance, "he was reassuring, realistic and pragmatic'' and also "robust'' about what the government is doing. Asked about the TV commentators who were saying after the address this morning that the market was falling even while the president spoke, she said, "I guarantee that, if we weren't out there,'' the same people would be asking why.

Meanwhile, the president is out here raising money for the day, nearly $2.5 million for a campaign that is coming face to face with the economic problem confronting the nation. Here in Coral Gables, however, for the moment, there is no sign of anxiety.

by Frank James

National Public Radio's Don Gonyea had a terrific story on "Morning Edition" today on how labor leader Richard Trumka has been challenging white union members who are reluctant to vote for Sen. Barack Obama for racial reasons.

As Gonyea reports, Trumka, secretary-treasurer of the AFL-CIO and former president of the United Mine Workers, hits the issue head on because he has heard racist comments himself about Obama and because he's long been one of the more fearless union leaders.

Gonyea's piece uses a powerful anecdote Truimka includes in his speeches as an example of how he believes fellow union members who plan to against Obama based on race are voting against their self-interest.

"This woman walks up to me. I'd known her for a long time, and I ask her 'Have you decided who you gonna vote for?' "