Clinton's Long Island support mirrors national vote

BY MICHAEL AMON AND REID J. EPSTEIN.michael.amon@newsday.com.reid.epstein@newsday.com

February 7, 2008

Hillary Rodham Clinton's decisive win in Tuesday's New York primary was bolstered by large victories on Long Island that both highlighted her strengths and threw her weaknesses into sharp relief, political analysts and elected officials said.

New York's junior senator captured about 62 percent of the Democratic vote in Suffolk and Nassau counties - 5 points higher than her statewide total - and took home more than 70 percent in two local congressional districts, among the biggest victory margins in the state.

Her strengths in New York and on Long Island, according to exit polls and political analysts, were the same she's displayed nationally; she ran strongly among whites, women, Latinos and senior citizens.

But as in other primaries, Clinton faltered among blacks, losing by more than 20 points in African-American communities such as Roosevelt and the Village of Hempstead, according to unofficial tallies.

"We may be seeing the unveiling of a race and gender war," said Martin Cantor, director of the Long Island Economic & Social Policy Institute at Dowling College.

"African-Americans have waited since Reconstruction for this opportunity to have a bona fide candidate to support. And women feel the same way. This chance for either group may never happen again."

Long Island voters also buoyed Republican John McCain, who won 54 percent in Nassau and 58 percent in Suffolk - higher than his 51 percent total statewide. The Arizona senator benefitted from an endorsement from Rudy Giuliani, who dropped out last week, said Rep. Peter King (R-Seaford).

"Giuliani certainly would have cut significantly into McCain's vote," King said.

Clinton's strengths among white, middle-class voters were underscored by her wide victory margins in South Shore communities such as Oceanside, Bellmore and Woodmere, where she won more than 75 percent of the vote. In King's district, she won 71 percent.

"There are a good number of women with school-aged children, working mothers and professional women," King said of the Third District. "Hillary has a special appeal to them."

To be sure, Clinton's victory was due in part to endorsements from nearly every major Long Island Democrat.

Yet Clinton did best where her demographic stars seemed to be aligned.

Rep. Gary Ackerman (D-Jamaica Estates), whose district in northwestern Nassau and eastern Queens went for Clinton 72 percent to 28 percent, noted that half the population of his district is white and a quarter is Hispanic.

"The demographics and the diversity boded well for her," Ackerman said. "Hillary has tremendous appeal across the board."

But in some areas with significant African-American communities, Clinton displayed weakness.

In her worst showing on Long Island, Clinton beat Obama 55-44 in the 4th Congressional District in western Nassau. The district, represented by Democratic Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, encompasses African-American communities including Hempstead and Roosevelt, which went heavily for Obama.

The African-American vote for Obama there helped him capture 35 percent of the Democratic vote on Long Island - a goal that local Obama campaign chairman, Suffolk Legis. Jon Cooper (D-Lloyd Harbor), said once seemed improbable.