Party operatives analyze New York primary results

DAN JANISON | dan.janison@newsday.com

February 11, 2008

The biggest New York primary contest of its kind in decades sent party operatives scouring results district by district for hints at what's to come in the fall general election.

Numbers remain rough and unofficial, but it appears that more than 1.7 million Democrats voted in New York State's presidential primary last week. Republican voters totaled just over 600,000, or 35 percent of Democratic turnout.

The major parties are already at war this year for control of the State Senate, where Majority Leader Joseph Bruno's Repub- lican conference holds a slim margin. In two weeks, there's a special election for a vacant upstate seat, and the spin from both camps is well under way.

"The contrast between the two parties heading into November couldn't be more stark," declared state Democratic committee spokesman Jonathan Rosen. "There is palpable excitement at the grass roots level among Democrats all over the state. ... The Republican Party is depressed, divided and on the defensive."

State and Nassau GOP chairman Joseph Mondello, who earlier pinned hopes on a Rudy Giuliani nomination, said: "With Senator McCain at the head of our ticket, Republicans in New York and across the nation can look forward to a bright future."

By Friday, the Democratic vote was 998,749 for Hillary Rodham Clinton and 694,493 for Barack Obama. Adding in the totals for dropouts still on the ballot, turnout hit 1,715,006 or 32 percent of the official number of registered Democrats. John McCain won New York on Tuesday with more than half of the reported 607,011 GOP votes, marking an official 20 percent Republican turnout. (Turnout percentages are a bit blurry; for one thing, so-called motor-voter programs in the 1990s signed up some who failed to vote).

QUERIES. Nonpartisan voter advocates suspect some citizens had their names erroneously dropped from the rolls during a statewide effort to cut duplication in compliance with new federal laws, thus forcing more affidavit votes (see the item at left on this page). Inquiries are expected.

ODDITIES. Alert staffers preparing interactive primary-result maps and charts for newsday.com noted several quirks. At the Oregon Middle School in Medford, for example, Democratic dropout Bill Richardson was recorded with 190 votes - meaning he would have won that precinct. Election board officials suspect the wrong column of numbers may have been called in. Tallies will be checked when machines are re-examined and certified.

INCUMBENCIES. One year ago, state Sen. Craig Johnson (D-Port Washington) won a formerly Republican Nassau seat even as the 1199/SEIU health-care union and the Independence Party backed his opponent. But at a recent fundraiser for the rookie senator, the union bought a table and Independence county chair Bobby Kumar was on hand, Johnson allies report.