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Giuliani's celebrity may not be enough in Florida

BY TOM BRUNE | tom.brune@newsday.com; Staff writer Mark Harri

January 21, 2008

CELEBRATION, Fla. - With his rivals for the Republican nomination descending on Florida to campaign today, Rudy Giuliani must accomplish one key objective to win its crucial Jan. 29 primary: finally turn his celebrity into votes.

Giuliani still has the star power to draw a crowd, but so far he has failed to translate that into votes, turning in dismal near-bottom finishes in six GOP primaries where he flirted with voters before walking away.

Now Giuliani is heading into the homestretch for Florida's must-win primary, with eight days left to battle front-runner John McCain, deep-pocketed Mitt Romney and crusader Mike Huckabee, three rivals now his equals in a state he once led and had to himself.

As he crisscrosses the state, Giuliani must sell himself not just as a great man and tough leader, but also as the true choice of Floridians and registered Republicans, say his aides and political analysts.

To do that, he is turning his oft-touted 50-state strategy into a one-state campaign. Following Romney's focus on local needs in winning Michigan, Giuliani is running for president of Florida.

He supports a catastrophic insurance fund sponsored by Florida politicians, vows to reinvigorate the space program based here, pledges to help the endangered Everglades and endorses a northern Florida port for a nuclear ship.

Yet his number one issue is tax cuts - key in anti-tax Florida - a parallel campaign to one being led by popular Republican Gov. Charlie Crist, who is promoting a voter initiative to limit property taxes.

"We've got to get the message out that he is the fiscal conservative," said Pat Oxford, a top campaign aide to Giuliani.

The battle over who will cut taxes, spending and bureaucrats the most looms large as the four contenders campaign here in the coming days.

But Giuliani also has to remain competitive in the polls conducted over the next week here, to erase his image as a primary loser, said Florida politics expert Susan MacManus.

"Everybody will be polling Florida. If two or three people move ahead of him, that will be terribly bad," MacManus said.

In late August, a Gallup Poll assessment foretold Giuliani's troubles. It found he only led when his celebrity made him better known than his rivals and well-known McCain was at a low point. Voters familiar with the candidates actually ranked Giuliani second.

Now, Giuliani is statistically tied with his three rivals, said Peter Brown of the Quinnipiac Poll, and with wins in New Hampshire and South Carolina, McCain is the big celebrity.

Florida has three political sections and Central Florida, with a swing vote of 43 percent of the state's voters, will be a battleground.

Kevin Wagner of Florida Atlantic University in Boca Raton, said, "You're not going to meet everybody at the diner like in New Hampshire. You have to spend money on ads."

That gives an edge to Romney, though Giuliani has spent $2 million on some 2,500 spots, mostly in Tampa, Orlando and swing areas, said the Campaign Media Analysis Group. He also spent an estimated $200,000 to $400,000 on cable buys.

But all will seek free media by catering to local reporters and holding local events.

With competition now here, Giuliani yesterday launched a second bus tour with new pizzazz, trying to tap celebrity, gravity and GOP patriotism.

Movie star Jon Voight opened by extolling Giuliani's 9/11 performance. Former FBI chief Louis Freeh reinforced the toughness of the former prosecutor and mayor.

Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum, Giuliani's state chair, added the final touch in an introduction as music swelled.

"The true Reagan conservative in this race," he said, "is Rudy Giuliani."

Staff writer Mark Harrington contributed to this story.