John McCain pumped by Super Tuesday poll numbers

BY TOM BRUNE | tom.brune@newsday.com; Staff

February 4, 2008

WASHINGTON - As top Republican presidential contenders John McCain and Mitt Romney head into tomorrow's mega-primary in New York and 20 other states, a question hangs over the GOP contest: Is it all over but for the voting?

Two major national opinion polls released yesterday found McCain now has twice as much support among GOP voters as Romney, with Mike Huckabee coming in third and Ron Paul trailing behind.

Several other recent local polls find McCain leads in most of the states that will hold contests tomorrow except two - Massachusetts and Utah, which represent Romney's home state and base. McCain also takes a slight lead in delegates - 93 to Romney's 77 - into tomorrow's Super Primary, but he appears assured a majority of the 1,081 up for grabs at day's end, most analysts said.

It takes 1,191 delegates to win the nomination.

"We won't know until we see the results, but if McCain performs at the ballot box as he has been polling, then he will have a prohibitive lead in delegates, although not enough to clinch," said Republican pollster and analyst Whit Ayres.

"If all Romney and Huckabee can do is pick up a handful of states between them, the race will be effectively over."

Romney conceded nothing as he campaigned yesterday in Illinois and Missouri.

Instead, he mounted a strong effort to rally the party's conservatives around him, particularly those who have long harbored distrust and even a visceral dislike of McCain for his maverick and, in their eyes, liberal rhetoric and legislation.

Asked on ABC's "This Week" how he can turn around McCain's momentum, Romney pointed to the party's base.

"I think the answer is that you make sure as you go across the country that you build the support among the base of our party, to remind them that this is a battle, in some respects, for the heart and soul of the Republican Party," Romney said.

"Frankly, if we want a party that is indistinguishable from Hillary Clinton on an issue like illegal immigration - that we're going to have John McCain as a nominee - that's the wrong way to go," he said.

But Romney also finds himself fending off Huckabee, who campaigned in Georgia and Tennessee yesterday.

Huckabee, expected to win his home state of Arkansas, could siphon off conservative votes for Romney in the South.

"I think it's time for Mitt Romney to step aside," said Iowa winner Huckabee on CNN. "If he wants to call it a two-man race, fine. But that makes it John McCain and me."

McCain made his own case for the conservative vote, and last night headed to take on Romney on his home turf of Massachusetts.

"If you examine my record, it's more conservative than Governor Romney's is," he said on CBS' "Face the Nation. "I am proud of my conservative record, and I will run on it, and I'm proud of the supporters that I have."

The Arizona senator, 71, flew to Westchester County yesterday, then boarded his "Straight Talk Express" campaign bus to roll to a rally at Sacred Heart University in Fairfield, Conn.

There he shared the stage with another maverick, Connecticut's Democrat-turned-independent Sen. Joseph Lieberman, where an enthusiastic crowd drowned out a heckler with chants of "Mac is back!"

After the rally, McCain begged off questions about his choice for vice president, including Lieberman. McCain said he first must win the nomination, adding he was "guardedly optimistic" that he would.

Later, he relished in a visit to the former Massachusetts governor's home turf, greeting supporters and football fans clad in New England Patriots jerseys at the Green Dragon Tavern in Boston's Faneuil Hall neighborhood.

Inside, he was welcomed by former Massachusetts governor Paul Celluci, who has endorsed McCain. Talking to people on the street outside, McCain said, "We're going to compete here."

McCain certainly could take comfort from two new polls.

The Washington Post-ABC News poll said McCain had 48 percent of GOP support, twice Romney's 24 percent. Huckabee had 16 percent and Paul 7 percent.

The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press said McCain led Romney 42 percent to 22 percent. Romney was statistically tied with Huckabee, with 20 percent, and Paul had 5 percent.

Both polls had a 5 point margin of error for GOP results.

McCain also could take some encouragement from the delegate count: McCain leads with 93, Romney has 77, Huckabee 40 and Paul 4.

McCain, polls show, is poised to win at least 201 delegates in what once were Rudy Giuliani strongholds: the winner-take-all states of New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Delaware.

Even if Romney wins all six contests that are not primary votes but conventions or caucuses - contests he has targeted - and splits the 500-plus up for grabs, McCain would still emerge with more delegates.

Staff writer Keith Herbert contributed to this story from Fairfield, Conn.