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Texas Hispanic voters waver in backing of Clinton

BY LETTA TAYLER | letta.tayler@newsday.com

March 3, 2008

SAN ANTONIO - In most respects, Anna Lisa Hernandez, the wife of a construction worker, is Hillary Clinton's quintessential Latino supporter.

A stay-at-home mother of three, she frets about affordable health care, a signature Clinton issue, and thinks it is high time a woman got a shot at the White House. She is grateful that former President Bill Clinton appointed Hispanics to his cabinet.

But as she listened to Clinton at a rally here Friday, Hernandez, 37, realized she was poised to vote for the New York senator's youthful challenger, Barack Obama. "He's so fresh, and young minds think about solving problems in a different way," she said. "Hillary has been there, done that."

Three weeks ago, Clinton appeared to have locked up Texas' pivotal Latino vote, which could surge to as much as 40 percent of ballots in this state's Democratic contest tomorrow. But polls suggest her Latino base is eroding.

That drop is not as sharp as Clinton's overall decline in Texas, where she is in a statistical tie with Obama after leading him by double digits.

But Clinton must trounce Obama among Latinos to take Texas, political analysts say. And if she doesn't capture this crown jewel of a primary state, she would be hard put to stay in the race after Obama's 11-straight victories.

"Texas is Hillary Clinton's Alamo," said Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University near Dallas.

Obama, in turn, needs Texas to prove he can win big states and large Latino populations. Consequently, Lone Star Latinos are being courted like never before.

"Vóte por Mamá, no Obama!" (Vote for Mama, not Obama!) a South Texas mayor chanted at one Clinton stump.

At a rally Friday in an amphitheater outside San Antonio, some supporters wore shirts reading Obámanos, a play on the command vámanos (let's go).

Obama spoke an hour before Clinton addressed fans down the road from the Alamo.

Clinton, who likes to munch a taco on the campaign trail, claims registering voters along the Rio Grande in 1972 made her a Mexican food addict.

Not to be outdone, Obama earlier Friday visited the border, where he autographed a sombrero and sampled a fat Mexican sandwich called a torta.

Tejano bands warm crowds at some Clinton rallies. YouTube features a raucous, pro-Obama corrido, or Mexican ballad, that originated on amigosdeobama.com.

"Viva Obama! Viva Obama!" belts a male mariachi singer in a giant sombrero as the camera cuts to smiling cooks, businessmen and construction workers holding Obama signs. "His struggle is our struggle, too!"

In mid-February, polls showed 70 percent of likely Latino Democratic primary voters backing Clinton. By Saturday, her edge had slipped to 62-30, with 7 percent undecided.

That may still seem like a big lead. But Texas' complex rules for apportioning delegates, which will favor urban and black districts, mean Clinton needs at least 60 percent of the Latino vote to win, Jillson said.

One-third of delegates will be allotted through the "Texas two-step," in which voters also caucus. Obama's grassroots organizing skills have helped him beat Clinton in caucuses thus far.

But Clinton's Latino outreach may rival Obama's here, thanks to an array of Hispanic supporters that runs "from Congress down to dogcatcher," said Sylvia Manzano, a political expert at Texas A&M University.

Those endorsements helped Clinton beat Obama 2-1 among Latinos in California's primary.

Bill Clinton's legacy also resonates among Latinos. "Everybody still remembers what he did for Hispanics when few other politicians cared about us," said Cynthia Villarreal, 58, a retired bank worker.

But one-third of Lone Star Latinos have a relative on active duty, thrusting Clinton's initial vote for the Iraq war into the spotlight, said Lydia Camarillo of the San Antonio-based Southwest Voters Registration and Education Project.

Some voters also resent Clinton's opposition to undocumented immigrants obtaining drivers' licenses. "Latinos will be loyal, but not blindly loyal," she said.

Some Texan Latinos are split along generational lines, with older voters supporting Clinton and younger voters, who represent 30 percent of Hispanic balloters, backing Obama. But Obama's packed rally here also drew older Latinos who came with their children.

"In California, many Latinos didn't know who Obama was," Manzano said. "In Texas, time may be on his side."