Polls show Giuliani tied for third in Florida

BY MARK HARRINGTON | mark.harrington@newsday.com. Staff writer

January 24, 2008

ESTERO, Fla. - Rudy Giuliani's make-or-break state appears to be breaking him.

Two new polls released yesterday show the GOP primary hopeful's support plummeting among Florida voters, despite concentrating his campaign here with a whirlwind of campaign stops, a heap of advertising and position shifts in support of state causes.

A Miami Herald poll of 800 Republican voters showed Giuliani's one-time lead of 33 percent had plummeted to 15 percent. The survey conducted Jan. 20-21 had him tied for third place with Mike Huckabee. John McCain leads with 25 percent, followed by Mitt Romney, with 22 percent.

One pollster called the results "devastating."

"A funny thing happened on the way to Rudy's victory lap," said Kellyanne Conway of The Polling Company in Washington. "The more time he's spent in Florida the worse he's done."

Giuliani on "Larry King Live" last night said he was "not surprised at all the polls are very close," describing the results as all within "the margin of error."

Saying he'd been outspent by other candidates, Giuliani predicted the slide in his popularity would reverse. "We think they're going to turn over the weekend," he said of the poll numbers. "I think we're cracking through. We'll see over the weekend. We're working real hard at it."

A second poll by American Research Group poll showed Giuliani had the support of 16 percent of Florida's Republican voters - effectively tied for third place. John McCain led the poll with 29 percent, followed by Romney with 22 percent and Huckabee with 17 percent.

Giuliani dismissed the polls. "I think we're going to win here," he told reporters after a rally, "but this [campaign] has to go day-by-day."

Top supporters also said the surveys fail to reflect thousands of Floridians who have already voted under that state's election laws. "I don't think the polls reflect the early votes," said Rep. Peter King (R-Seaford) who said Giuliani has been urging such early voting.

At the same time, Giuliani backers in Congress introduced legislation based on his tax package as a way to accelerate and intensify a badly needed economic stimulus.

But the introduction of the so-called Fair and Simple Tax Act is largely symbolic, since Democrats who control both houses of Congress staunchly oppose Giuliani-backed measures, such as making permanent the Bush tax cuts.

Staff writer Carol Eisenberg contributed to this story.