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Florida's McCain-Romney contest may oust Giuliani

BY TOM BRUNE | tom.brune@newsday.com

January 29, 2008

MIAMI - Rudy Giuliani could be headed for the exits after today's do-or-die primary here, likely the odd man out as the GOP presidential campaign appears to be narrowing to a race mainly between John McCain and Mitt Romney.

Giuliani, who at one time led by double digits in the polls and for nearly two weeks had the state to himself, was locked in a battle for third place with Mike Huckabee in the latest Florida poll, released yesterday by Quinnipiac University.

Flying around the state in a last full day of campaigning, Giuliani, nevertheless, predicted victory. But he also said only one viable candidate would emerge from Florida, and hinted if he didn't win he might not go forward into the Feb. 5 mega-primary of 22 states.

"I think the winner of Florida will win the nomination," Giuliani said, "and we're going to win Florida."

But he hedged when asked about his own campaign plans after today. "When it's Wednesday morning, we'll make a decision," he said.

McCain and Romney yesterday acted like they were in a tight election battle, as they again ignored Giuliani and traded what for conservatives are particularly nasty jabs, calling each other "liberals." The new poll shows the two statistically tied at 32 percent and 31 percent ahead of the vote today, which is open to Republicans only and will award the winner 57 delegates toward the 1,191 needed to win the nomination.

Giuliani's campaign made a case that it could win here on the back of its get-out-the-vote efforts aimed at early and absentee voters, who are expected to top 450,000 and to account for a third of the turnout.

Converting a substantial number of the early voters into Giuliani voters could give the former mayor a bump in the polls. But even Giuliani campaign manager Mike DuHaime acknowledged that those voters could make a difference of only a few percentage points.

DuHaime and other Giuliani aides also worried that McCain might be siphoning off votes with calls to supporters telling them a vote for Giuliani was a vote for Romney, so they should vote for McCain.

A McCain win could drive Giuliani out of the race, if he thinks he's losing his base. A Romney victory robs McCain of front-runner status and keeps the race open, so if Giuliani were to finish second or close to second, he could stay in. Giuliani said he "fully intended" to participate in tomorrow night's GOP debate in California, and acted the optimist as he pumped for votes, though he drew small crowds.

"I believe our early voting strategy was a very good one. We have every indication that it was," he said. "Our positive message will appeal greatly to the people of Florida. Two other candidates are attacking each other pretty heavily."

Romney accused McCain of proposing "liberal answers" to issues such as campaign finance, illegal immigration and even energy costs. "And I just don't think those liberal answers are what America is looking for," he said in Fort Myers.

McCain said, "Mitt Romney was a liberal governor of Massachusetts who raised taxes, imposed with Ted Kennedy a big government mandate health care plan that is now a quarter of a billion dollars in the red, and managed his state's economy incompetently."

That battle has dominated news here, making it harder for Giuliani to woo voters, said GOP analyst Whit Ayers.

If Giuliani doesn't win here and his prospects for winning his home state of New York on Feb. 5 appear dim, he has little incentive to stay in the race, especially if he wants to remain politically viable in the future.

In Albany, State Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno (R-Brunswick) acknowledged concerns about him quitting.

"There is concern, yeah, because his numbers are softer than they had been a month ago," he said. "And in Florida, especially and here in New York State."

The campaign itself gave off hints it is not necessarily gearing up for a long hard run. Aides are relaxed, the warm thank you's to campaign workers at stops linger, and Giuliani even gave the traveling press corps signed baseballs.

Giuliani often stresses that a win in Florida is crucial. "We realized this is the place where we have to test ourselves, that we have to test our campaign," he said. "It's the best choice given the realities that we have."