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Darfur's devastation

New report says fighting in Sudanese region has led to far more deaths than in previous estimates

BY BRYN NELSON | Newsday Staff Writer

September 15, 2006

At least 170,000 to 255,000 people have died as a result of the continuing conflict in western Sudan, according to a new analysis of surveys conducted in refugee camps that concludes many previous death toll estimates were too low.

"In law, there's this basic idea that states, 'No body, no crime,' " said John Hagan, a professor of sociology and law at Northwestern University. The point is no less true with genocide, he said, stressing that an accurate accounting of deaths in Sudan's Darfur region is vital for understanding the magnitude of the crisis and for bringing the genocidal forces to justice in the future.

The conflict, which began in February 2003 and has since raged throughout the Sudanese states of North, South and West Darfur, led then-Secretary of State Colin Powell to declare in September 2004 that "genocide has been committed" and that the Sudanese government and Arab Janjaweed militias bore responsibility.

The Sudanese government has denied the charge.

For their new study, Hagan and co-author Alberto Palloni of the University of Wisconsin focused primarily on surveys from West Darfur camps, conducted by the humanitarian group Doctors Without Borders over a 19-month period in 2003 and 2004, and then extrapolated the toll to arrive at an estimate for all three states over 31 months. Hagan said the analysis should be seen as a "floor estimate that we should not see people reporting below."

Observers say attaching numbers to the death toll is vital to determine need for humanitarian aid, but has proven extraordinarily difficult because of inaccessibility of camps, violence and government opposition.

Underscoring the sensitivity of the issue, other analysts questioned the methodology of the new estimate, published today in Science.

"I think their estimate is probably not too far off, but I think that's probably out of good luck rather than good science," said Rick Brennan, director of health programs for the New York-based International Rescue Committee. Sudan researcher and analyst Eric Reeves of Smith College also had harsh words, alleging that the study under-represented the toll he believes may have soared to as high as 500,000.

A U.S. State Department report concluded that between 63,000 and ',000 "excess" deaths were attributable to the Darfur conflict through January 2005.

Two weeks ago, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 1706, authorizing deployment of an international peacekeeping force in Darfur. Citing national sovereignty, the Sudanese government has refused to allow the force to take over for beleaguered African Union troops. UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan warned on Wednesday of a looming humanitarian disaster.

Meanwhile, officials of the only rebel group in Darfur to sign a peace accord with the Sudanese government suggested they will resume fighting if the African Union troops leave by the end of the month and are not replaced by a United Nations force, according to a report in The Washington Post.