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Who will succeed al-Zarqawi?

With terrorist leader's death, U.S. and Iraqi officials must figure out who will take over as face of insurgency

BY MOHAMAD BAZZI | Newsday Middle East Correspondent

9:32 PM EDT, June 9, 2006

Abu Musab al-Zarqawi (AP Photo)

BEIRUT, Lebanon - It won't be easy to replace Abu Musab al-Zarqawi as the public face of the Iraqi insurgency. He instigated sectarian warfare, used the media masterfully and lured scores of volunteer suicide bombers.

No other Islamic militant operating in Iraq may be able to fill all those roles. Yet al-Zarqawi's death in a U.S. air raid Wednesday leaves a question that is likely to nag U.S. and Iraqi officials for weeks, or even months: Who is going to be Iraq's new Public Enemy No. 1?

U.S. commanders insist that a foreigner most likely would replace al-Zarqawi, who was Jordanian. But Arab analysts argue that his successor is going to be an Iraqi, to mend a rift between the foreign militants who form the backbone of al-Zarqawi's group -- al-Qaida in Iraq -- and the Iraqi Sunnis who make up other segments of the insurgency.

Without al-Zarqawi, his group could fracture into smaller cells or be torn apart by a struggle over his successor. Still, analysts say the group will continue to exist in one form or another -- and it will have a new leader, or perhaps a ruling committee of several members.

"Al-Zarqawi cannot really be replaced. He was the one who founded al-Qaida in Iraq. He was the only known name and face in the group," said Diaa Rashwan, an expert on Islamic militants at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo. "If the group is going to reorganize, it will do so under a new leader who will be known only by a nom de guerre. His history may not even be known."

Even before al-Zarqawi was killed, U.S. and Iraqi commanders had discussed his likely successor. Maj. Gen. William Caldwell, a U.S. military spokesman, said the top candidate is Abu al-Masri, an Egyptian who was trained at al-Qaida camps in Afghanistan.

"He's the most logical one ... as you look at that structure out there and how they operate," Caldwell told reporters in Baghdad on Thursday. He said al-Masri came to Iraq in 2002 and helped establish the first Baghdad cell of al-Qaida in Iraq. Little else is known about al-Masri.

Another possible heir is an Iraqi known as Abdullah Rashid al-Baghdadi. He was named in a statement posted in January on Islamic Web sites as head of the Mujahideen Shura Council, an alliance of seven insurgent groups that includes al-Qaida in Iraq. U.S. and Iraqi officials know little about al-Baghdadi beyond the statements attributed to him. Some intelligence officials wonder if he even exists.

For more than a year, al-Zarqawi's group signed many of its statements under the name of Abu Abdul Rahman al-Iraqi, a pseudonym for a man believed to be a former Iraqi army general. He was often cited as al-Zarqawi's top deputy and his likely successor. U.S. commanders said Wednesday's air strike killed al-Zarqawi's "spiritual adviser," who was identified as Sheik Abdul Rahman. It is unclear if he is the same man who had signed the group's communiques.

In the past, intelligence officials identified two other Iraqis as leading contenders to succeed al-Zarqawi. They are known by the noms de guerre Abu Maysara al-Iraqi and Abu Dardaa al-Iraqi. Abu Maysara is the propaganda chief of al-Qaida in Iraq, and he sometimes signs Internet statements in the group's name. Abu Dardaa is the group's military commander in Baghdad.

An Iraqi security official said the two men began developing Islamic leanings during Saddam Hussein's "faith campaign" in the mid-1990s, which was intended to promote religious fervor in Iraqi society. The men also trained special forces units in the Iraqi military.

To avoid a power struggle, analyst say, several lieutenants might share control of al-Qaida in Iraq. A statement posted on a militant Web site hours after al-Zarqawi's death was announced Thursday claimed that the group already had formed a committee to replace its "martyred" leader. "The death of our leaders is life for us," the statement said. "It will give us new strength to continue the jihad."