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Analysis: Wider war feared in mideast

BY MOHAMAD BAZZI | Newsday Middle East Correspondent

July 13, 2006

SIDON, Lebanon - With the audacious kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid yesterday, the Shia militant group Hezbollah could ignite a full-scale war in the Middle East.

Israeli leaders called the raid an "act of war" and vowed harsh retaliation. Depending on the severity of the Israeli response, opposition to Hezbollah is likely to grow within Lebanon. The country, which survived a fratricidal 15-year civil war, has again been roiled by sectarian strife since the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri last year. Hezbollah is under pressure like never before to disarm.

"Hezbollah is in a very difficult position right now, perhaps the most difficult of its entire existence," said Ali Amin, an editor at the Beirut-based Al-Balad newspaper. "Many segments of Lebanese society believe the capture of these soldiers could do tremendous damage to Lebanon."

Hezbollah fought an 18-year guerrilla war to force Israel to withdraw from a self-declared "security zone" in southern Lebanon. Since the Israeli pullout in May 2000, Hezbollah has been lauded throughout the Arab world for accomplishing what Arab armies never could: forcing Israel to relinquish occupied land. But Israel's withdrawal robbed Hezbollah of a central reason for its existence, and some members argued that it should disarm and become strictly a political party.

When the Palestinian uprising began in September 2000, Hezbollah adopted it as a new cause. Despite its vows to fight until Israel is driven out of Jerusalem, Hezbollah has largely stayed away from directly attacking Israel, fearing devastating reprisals. Instead, the group focused on driving Israeli forces from a disputed border region called Shebaa Farms. The area is claimed by Lebanon, but Israel and the United Nations say it was captured by Israel from Syria during the 1967 Middle East war.

Since the Israeli pullout, there have been occasional skirmishes along the border and especially in Shebaa Farms. But as long as the fighting remained confined to the disputed area, there was an unspoken agreement between Hezbollah (Arabic for "Party of God") and Israel that the battle would not spread.

With the abduction of the two soldiers from Israeli territory, that understanding has been shattered. Hezbollah's incursion and subsequent fighting along the border yesterday - in which eight Israeli soldiers were killed - opens another front for Israel as it tries to fight Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip. On June 25, fighters allied with Hamas abducted Israeli Cpl. Gilad Shalit and brought him into Gaza.

"I can't understand why Hezbollah chose this particular timing," said Timur Goksel, a former senior United Nations adviser in southern Lebanon. "Why didn't they wait for a few months, until the regional situation calmed down? There was no pressing problem for Hezbollah and Lebanon was not under any great threat from Israel."

The United States has branded Hezbollah a terrorist organization, but many Lebanese regard it as a dominant political force that cannot be eliminated from society. The group draws its strength from the Shia Muslim community, which is a plurality in Lebanon, making up 40 percent of the population of 4 million. Hezbollah runs a virtual ministate, controlling the crowded Shia suburbs of Beirut and most of southern Lebanon. It holds 12 of the 128 seats in Lebanon's parliament; has two government ministers; runs schools and hospitals; operates a television station and offers small-business loans.

While Israel was not threatening Lebanon, the Jewish state has ratcheted its rhetoric against Hezbollah's two chief patrons: Syria and Iran. Since Shalit's abduction by Hamas fighters, Israel has issued threats and urged international pressure against Syria for sheltering the top Hamas political leaders. Israel also is alarmed by Iran's nuclear development program.

After yesterday's cross-border attack by Hezbollah, Israeli leaders said they held both the Lebanese and Syrian governments responsible and they did not rule out attacking both countries. Some Israeli officials warned they might re-invade Lebanon.

If the soldiers are not returned, Army Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Dan Halutz told Israeli TV, the military would devastate Lebanon's infrastructure and "turn back the clock in Lebanon by 20 years."

Some analysts doubted whether Israel can afford to fight both Hezbollah and the Palestinians at the same time. "I don't think Israel would want to engage in a war on two fronts, with Hezbollah and Hamas, both non-state actors that have backing from Iran and Syria," said Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, a political science professor at Lebanese American University in Beirut who wrote a book about Hezbollah."The Israelis have a good assessment of Hezbollah's military capability and they know it can strike back."

Hezbollah has hidden thousands of missiles in southern Lebanon, including Iranian-built missiles that can reach Israeli cities such as Haifa and Tel Aviv. At a triumphant news conference in Beirut yesterday, Hezbollah leader Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah vowed that if Israel intensifies its retaliation against Lebanon, the group will respond with "surprises that the enemy will not expect."

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