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Letters are tales of two Irans

Correspondences reveal a battle brewing over the best way to deal with nuclear question

BY MOHAMAD BAZZI | Newsday Middle East Correspondent

May 12, 2006

BEIRUT, Lebanon - As the world focuses on the showdown between Iran and the United States, there is a hidden struggle within the Iranian regime over how to deal with international pressure.

That battle came to light briefly this week with the release of two letters by Iranian leaders - one from Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to President George W. Bush, the other an "open letter" from Iran's former top nuclear negotiator, Hassan Rohani.

The letters could not be much different. In his 18-page treatise, Ahmadinejad expounded on religion, philosophy and morality. He criticized the U.S. government for everything from the Iraq war to poverty in Africa. And he did not propose ways to resolve the standoff over Iran's nuclear program. By contrast, Rohani said Tehran would accept limits on its ability to enrich uranium and consider allowing surprise inspections of its nuclear development sites. Neither leader has acknowledged the other's letter.

For Iran analysts, the letters highlighted how two competing camps in the regime are pursuing different strategies for dealing with the nuclear impasse. In one faction, there is Ahmadinejad and other hard-liners who prefer confrontation with the West. In the other, there is Rohani and his political mentor, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a two-time Iranian president.

"These are opposing messages and messengers," said Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, a think tank that focuses on conflict resolution. "Rafsanjani wants to make sure that Western leaders know that they can deal with others in the regime besides Ahmadinejad."

After repeatedly denying the Holocaust and calling for the destruction of Israel, Ahmadinejad has isolated himself from much of the West. He also installed a hard-liner, Ali Larjani, to replace Rohani last year as head of Iran's nuclear negotiations team.

Ahmadinejad - who served as the appointed mayor of Tehran before being elected president last year - had never before held an elected office and had no experience in international diplomacy.

"He's seen as not playing by the rules and protocols of the Iranian system," said Sadjadpour. "He's a junior politician who was catapulted to the presidency."

Rafsanjani's camp feels that Ahmadinejad should defer to the country's elder statesmen on important matters such as relations with the West and nuclear negotiations. But Ahmadinejad has shown little sign of bowing to the leaders of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, such as Rafsanjani.

As a result, Rafsanjani's camp is putting out a message that there are others in Iran willing to negotiate with the United States and Europe. The leading candidate is Rohani, who headed Iran's Supreme National Security Council for 17 years - until Ahmadinejad forced him out. European negotiators dealt with Rohani for years, and analysts say he was well-regarded as a pragmatic mediator.

"Western powers will find it difficult to make deals with the conservatives because they are unpredictable and ideological," said Hamid Reza Jalaeipour, a political sociologist at Tehran University.

But the Bush administration publicly dismissed both the Ahmadinejad letter and Rohani's overture. Some Democrats say the administration has missed several chances to negotiate with Iran, and it is in danger of doing so again.

"The administration has missed several opportunities, Sen. Hilary Rodham Clinton said in Washington yesterday. "It outsourced its policy on Iran to the British, the French and the Germans, which I think was a mistake."

The true levers of power in Iran rest with a group of unelected clerics, especially the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Under Iran's theocratic system, the supreme leader has final say in all political and social matters. His word is regarded as infallible and he is thought responsible only to God. This unique structure was created for Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the charismatic cleric who led the 1979 revolution.

While Khamenei backed Ahmadinejad during last year's campaign, the cleric has distanced himself recently from some of the president's statements. Rohani is close to Khamenei, who nurtures allies in both the hard-line and moderate camps.

"Khamenei has always been opposed to both confrontation and accommodation with the West," Sadjadpour said. "He allows one side to push toward a confrontation, but when Iran gets backed into a corner, he allows mediators like Rohani to try to solve the problem."