Lebanon expecting a full-scale invasion

BY MOHAMAD BAZZI | Newsday Middle East Correspondent

July 23, 2006

BEIRUT, Lebanon - From the moment Hezbollah's abduction of two Israeli soldiers provoked a war, one question has dominated the debate: Will Israel invade Lebanon as it did in 1982?

Israeli leaders insist they're conducting only a limited ground operation and are not going to fall into another quagmire here, as they did after the 1982 invasion. It took Israel 18 years to extricate itself after capturing Beirut and then occupying a swath of southern Lebanon. It finally withdrew its troops in May 2000, after a long and costly guerrilla war with Hezbollah.

Now, Israel is sending ground troops north once again. Since fighting began on July 12, Israeli commandos have made several forays into southern Lebanese villages - hoping to collect intelligence and root out Hezbollah fighters. But yesterday, Israel dramatically stepped up its ground attacks inside Lebanon, sending hundreds of troops and dozens of tanks.

To Lebanese analysts and officials, Israel appears on the verge of a large-scale invasion.

"Israel cannot achieve its goals just by bombing from sea, air and land. It needs a ground offensive," said Elias Hanna, a retired Lebanese army brigadier general. "The intense aerial bombardment of the past week was intended to prepare the ground for military operations."

After Hezbollah abducted the soldiers in a cross-border raid, Israel launched its most intense attack on Lebanon since 1982. The offensive has killed more than 360 Lebanese - nearly all civilians - and crippled the country's infrastructure, destroying dozens of roads and bridges. Israel also has tried to choke off Lebanon, bombing Beirut's international airport and imposing a naval blockade.

Israeli officials say they're intent on forcing Hezbollah to withdraw its fighters from south Lebanon and to end its missile attacks on northern Israel that have killed 15 civilians. Hezbollah has few fixed military positions that the Israelis could target from the air or sea. Analysts say that is why Israel has little choice but to send ground forces into the south if it wants to degrade Hezbollah's capabilities.

"Hezbollah never gave the Israelis any real military targets that they could attack," said Timur Goksel, a former senior United Nations adviser in southern Lebanon. "Israel has mostly civilian and infrastructure targets."

A ground offensive could be costly for the Israelis, analysts say, especially because Hezbollah fought a successful guerrilla war in the area. Hezbollah leader Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah said his fighters are preparing to fight a ground war.

"When the Israelis enter south Lebanon, they must pay dearly in terms of their tanks, officers and soldiers," he said in a TV interview Thursday.

One main question is whether Hezbollah guerrillas will fight Israeli troops as they enter south Lebanon, or withdraw north and wait for Israel to finish bringing in its soldiers and armor. "At that point, Hezbollah could organize guerrilla attacks similar to the ones it carried out during the occupation in the 1990s," Hanna said, "or to the ones being carried out against U.S. troops in Iraq."

The guerrilla war in south Lebanon was much smaller in scale than the Iraqi insurgency. At any one time, according to Lebanese officials, Hezbollah maintained about 1,000 full-time fighters. Israel usually kept 1,500 troops, backed up by a 2,500-member proxy militia, known as the South Lebanon Army. During 18 years of fighting, Israel lost several hundred soldiers, while Hezbollah lost about 1,200 guerrillas.

Through the mid-1980s, Hezbollah relied on young suicide bombers to crash cars into Israeli bases and patrols. But by the early '90s, it had adopted new methods: assassinations, sophisticated ambushes and powerful roadside bombs.

"We have long and real experience fighting the Israelis on the ground," Nasrallah said. "We have high and efficient fighting capabilities, good weaponry and good reserves."

The two sides have seemingly unbridgeable demands. Hezbollah insists it will release the two abducted soldiers only in return for three Lebanese prisoners being held by Israel. Israel insists it will not end its offensive until Hezbollah is disarmed and the Lebanese army is deployed in the south.

But the conflict is at an impasse: Few Lebanese expect Hezbollah to surrender its weapons, and Israel is unlikely to end its attack without displacing the guerrillas from its northern border. Lebanon and its government are caught in the middle, unable to forcibly disarm Hezbollah without risking a civil war and unable to withstand much more of Israel's bombardment.

Meanwhile, the prospect of an Israeli invasion looms large. "If Hezbollah learned from the years of occupation, so did Israel," Hanna said. "Both sides might have surprises."

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