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What's an un-elected chief to do?

Paterson's State of the State speech made the crisis clear, but he faces many obstacles to success

BY JEFFREY STONECASH | Jeffrey Stonecash teaches political science in the Maxwell School at Syracuse University. He is co-editor of "Governing New York State."

January 9, 2009

Gov. David Paterson does not face an easy situation as 2009 begins. His challenges are multiple, encompassing both long-standing and immediate problems in governing New York State, as well as institutional pressures made especially difficult by the way in which he came into office.

He is an un-elected governor. He can claim no campaign connection with voters nor any electoral mandate that comes from having articulated various policies and received electoral support from specific groups.

Paterson has acquired power on the heels of two governors (George Pataki and Eliot Spitzer) who had little use for the State Legislature and provoked legislative leaders and members with their dismissive attitude. He is surely facing a legislature that wishes to reassert its power relative to the governor. That will not make Paterson's life easy.

He also faces budget deficits whose magnitudes are hard to comprehend. Many of the state's past deficits have involved deficits based on the state continuing to spend at some projected rate of increase. Those can be dealt with by curtailing rates of growth in spending. The current deficit is far more serious - a product of the state's enormous reliance on taxing Wall Street executive incomes.

The deficit crisis comes on top of the state's long-term taxing and spending difficulties. New York has the highest combined state and local taxes in the nation. Property tax levels are a source of relentless complaint. The state's population is not growing, and the business community argues tenaciously that taxes are a major reason why business growth does not take place here. Medicaid expenditure is approaching $50 billion, and no one seems to know how to slow its growth.

Raising taxes on the more affluent might be attractive, but there is considerable hesitation about adding more taxes to get out of the deficit problem. Yet cutting the budget won't be easy, as Paterson discovered last year when he tried to get a special session to make cuts and got no cooperation.

It's not just an obstinate legislature that stands in his way. He has three important obstacles to cope with.

First, there are serious social problems that take money. New York has the greatest income inequality in the nation. We still have high immigration, and many immigrants need social services. Poverty is a serious problem and many lack health care. Those who care about people in need want to preserve programs and will not support funding cuts just because some say it is the responsible thing to do.

Second, powerful interests will mount campaigns to assert that cuts will have harmful effects. For every cut proposed, we can expect cries that disasters will occur and that anyone making cuts has no heart.

As legislators evaluate proposals, they know they'll get little credit with their constituents for dealing with the overall deficit problem, but lots of credit for standing firm against cuts in services.

Finally, the timing of this budget deficit could hardly be worse for Paterson's party, the Democrats. For the first time in 40 years they control the State Senate. For the first time since the 1930s they control the governorship and both houses of the legislature. The last thing Democrats want is to have their first decisions under unified control be to slash social programs and school aid.

Paterson's first hope has to be that President-elect Barack Obama and the Democratic Congress will provide emergency aid to the states. But even if this happens, how does Paterson get the legislature to agree to the budget cuts that still will be required?

He faces a lengthy persuasion process. He has to convince the Democrats that they will get credit for solving the fiscal mess and that doing so will solidify their control over the Senate. That will take a lot of talking.

The governor's State of the State address on Wednesday did little to change this imperative. He outlined the magnitude of the financial crisis, but now begins the process of negotiating cuts and building a sense in the legislature and among the public that cuts in cherished programs are necessary and legitimate.

This is going to take a lot of patience on the governor's part. Legislators will drag out the process as a means of educating the public about the need for cuts and to show voters that they made them only when pushed to the limit.

Paterson will have to work closely with the legislature, where he himself spent so many years. If he can pull it off, he'll be in a very good position for a 2010 race. If he doesn't handle the budget well, challengers won't be shy about launching a primary against him. Jeffrey Stonecash teaches political science in the Maxwell School at Syracuse University. He is co-editor of "Governing New York State."