Text size:

McCain's New Hampshire win spells trouble for Mitt

He now sets his sights on Michigan

BY TOM BRUNE | tom.brune@newsday.com

11:39 PM EST, January 8, 2008

MANCHESTER, N.H. - John McCain rode a wave of independent voters to a solid victory here Tuesday night, dealing a significant blow to Mitt Romney's prospects and further scrambling a Republican presidential race still in search of a front-runner.

The win, with 37 percent, crowned McCain as the "comeback kid" and breathed new life into his once-comatose campaign, just as a weak 9 percent showing here turned former national front-runner Rudy Giuliani into a fourth-place also-ran.

The race moves next to Michigan, where on Jan. 15 McCain's near-broke campaign will once again face off with Romney, whose well-financed strategy to win here and in Iowa only brought him two second-place consolation prizes.

Iowa victor Mike Huckabee won a surprise third with 11 percent of the vote, well behind Romney's 32 percent but significant because he did it without a large evangelical vote and because it gives him a boost going into conservative South Carolina's primary on Jan. 19.

"My friend, I'm past the age I can claim the noun 'kid,' no matter what adjective precedes it. But tonight we sure showed them what a comeback looks like," said the 71-year-old McCain as his supporters chanted "Mac is back" in his Nashua headquarters.

Unbowed, Romney told his backers in Bedford he's in the campaign to stay.

"There have been three races so far. I've gotten two silvers and one gold -- thank you Wyoming," Romney said. "On to Michigan and South Carolina and Florida and Nevada," he added, "I'll fight to be back here in November in those states and others."

Giuliani made a quick exit last night, leaving amid a growing cloud of doubt after another loss, this time in a state where he spent millions, ran eight TV ads and campaigned more than anywhere else.

His record so far: sixth in Iowa, third in Wyoming and fourth in New Hampshire. And his dismal showings will continue for the next three contests since he is skipping them.

"We're going to continue our fight, our journey," he said at his Manchester hotel, invoking his unconventional national strategy.

"We're going to leave in a few minutes for Florida to fight it out there, and I want you to come join us there and help us," he said. "And help us in Connecticut. Help us in New York. Help us in New Jersey."

The famed first-in-the-nation primary here began to narrow the wide-open GOP race, setting up three major showdowns leading up to the mega-primary on Feb. 5, with voting in 22 states, including New York, Illinois and California.

In Michigan next week, McCain will seek to use last night's victory to repeat his win there in 2000, while Romney will tap into the legacy of his father George Romney, the state's former governor.

Romney began preparing for the fight ahead with another one-day telethon fundraiser and a trip to Michigan.

In South Carolina four days later, McCain will battle Huckabee, Romney and Fred Thompson in a primary that could cull the field.

Thompson headed to South Carolina yesterday, calling its primary the decisive contest for his campaign. McCain and Huckabee make appearances there today.

In Florida in three weeks, the first contest to exclude independents from voting in the Democratic and Republican primaries becomes Giuliani's best hope, and possibly Romney's last chance, say pundits there.

Early on in his campaign, Giuliani and his aides began considering Florida both his firewall to stop the losses, and his chance to leap into the big states voting on Feb. 5.

As long as no other candidate begins winning a string of states, Giuliani still has hope in Florida, said Susan MacManus, a politics professor at University of South Florida.

The results in the early states are not likely to affect voters there -- that's why Florida moved up its primary, incurring the wrath of both parties, she said. "What you hear nearly everywhere you turn in Florida is the big question mark: 'What's so special about Iowa and New Hampshire?'" MacManus said.

Still, Giuliani's failure to do better in a state where his persona and platform hold great appeal raise questions about his claim that he can compete in all 50 states or survive the waves of momentum for other candidates. His main solace yesterday was that he appeared to edge outsider Ron Paul, who won 8 percent.

"I am reluctant to bury Giuliani," said Quinnipiac pollster Peter A. Brown. "But the question for Rudy is: 'Can he survive to be viable on Feb. 5 through all those waves?'"