Opinions split on whom younger LI voters will back

BY PATRICK WHITTLE | patrick.whittle@newsday.com

February 3, 2008

Barack Obama rode to victory in the South Carolina primary with a 3-1 advantage among under-30 voters, but the chairman of Nassau County's Democratic Party thinks Long Island's under-30 crowd will come out strong in favor of Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Suffolk's Republican chairman predicts a victory for John McCain, but young Republicans on local college campuses said they might vote for Mitt Romney or Ron Paul in Tuesday's New York primary.

It's all apropos of this unpredictable campaign season: Don't take the youth vote for granted. Especially if they're Democrats.

Long Island's young Democrats outnumber their Republican counterparts and have a better chance of influencing Tuesday's primary, leaders from both parties said.

For Jonathan Hirst, 26, a Stony Brook University student from Massapequa, Tuesday is a chance to help return the Clinton family to the White House.

"In a national election, Hillary would be a stronger candidate," said Hirst, adding that he was a big Bill Clinton supporter in his teens and a Hillary victory "is kind of like two for the price of one."

Suffolk Legis. Jon Cooper, the Long Island chairman of Obama's campaign, said the Illinois senator has supporters campaigning on the campuses of Hofstra University, Stony Brook and SUNY Old Westbury, and that could turn into success at the polls. That focus has left Stony Brook student Sajid Ibnsail, 21, saying, "I guess Barack Obama is the one I'd like most" of the Democrats.

But Jay Jacobs, Nassau's Democratic chairman, said Clinton's campaign also is hard at work on college campuses. He expects young New Yorkers' familiarity with Clinton to propel her to victory.

The candidates who win the youth vote - on Long Island and beyond - will probably do so with their positions on the war in Iraq, the cost of higher education and job creation, said Chrissy Faessen, spokeswoman of Rock the Vote, a nationwide advocacy organization that encourages young people to vote.

Clinton's pledge to alleviate high tuition costs has resonated with students such as Crystal Ang, 20, a Stony Brook student from Great Neck. Ang also likes the idea of a woman in the Oval Office.

"It's going to be the first female president and I think that would be a good idea," she said.

Polling experts expect the increase in under-30 voters during this primary season to continue through the November election. Such a trend could make young Democrats especially powerful in Nassau and Suffolk, where under-30 voters represent about 15 percent of the party.

While Suffolk Republican chairman Harry Withers said he does not think age will be a factor in the primary, which he believes McCain will win, young Republicans such as 19-year-old Mark Geraci of Old Field said they expect to play a role. Geraci said he will vote for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney because he believes Romney is more capable of managing the war in Iraq.

"The war is important to me, the way it is contributing to the deficit," Geraci said.

Nationwide, 74 percent of people 18 to 29 said they are paying attention to presidential campaigns, compared with 42 percent in 2004, according to a Time magazine poll.

Under-30 voters on Long Island

NASSAU

Democrats 44,258

Percent of enrollment 15%

Republicans 28,462

Percent of enrollment 9%

SUFFOLK

Democrats 37,242

Percent of enrollment 15%

Republicans 24,715

Percent of enrollment 8%