Perception he's lost support hurts Rudy in Florida

BY MARK HARRINGTON | mark.harrington@newsday.com

January 28, 2008

PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. - When Rudy Giuliani's campaign bus rolled into Sun City Center a week ago, David Brown lavished his support on a giant homemade "Rudy!" sign.

On Saturday, when a competitor's caravan rolled into town, Brown was back at the senior center. This time, he brandished a "McCain!" sign to welcome front-runner John McCain.

Brown was unabashed.

"I've had some [second] thoughts," he said, noting that he cast an early vote for Giuliani and wishes he hadn't.

Across the state, pockets of support Giuliani once counted on appear to be slipping, mostly to McCain, who has overshadowed the former New York City mayor as the national security candidate. The Giuliani camp was stunned Saturday after popular Florida Gov. Charlie Crist threw his coveted endorsement behind the Arizona senator. "I was surprised," said Giuliani, who has spent weeks heralding his support for a federal catastrophe fund favored by Crist that McCain won't back.

Pundits say Giuliani's low standing across the nation is creating a poll-fulfilling prophecy.

"He's facing the perception from voters that he can't win," said Kevin Wagner, political science professor at Florida Atlantic University in Boca Raton. "It leads people to think they're wasting their vote if they vote for Giuliani."

Crist, campaigning in Tampa yesterday with McCain, called Giuliani and the other GOP contenders "all good candidates." But, he said, "When it comes down to it you have to pick one. I just like the guy [McCain]."

Wagner said Crist probably was eyeing the polls. "If Giuliani were still the front-runner, it's quite possible he'd have the governor's support," he said.

At a McCain rally at the Fantasy of Flight Museum in Polk City, voters who were thrilled to see Giuliani here recently didn't even discuss him as a contender.

"I think he's done," said Chris McLaughlin, a Realtor from Lakeland who is now deciding between McCain and Mitt Romney.

The Giuliani camp dismisses that prediction, saying their emphasis on early voting could turn the race in their favor. Some 400,000 early votes are already cast, but the results of that balloting won't be known until tomorrow.

While McCain declined to say the field was narrowing, his team is campaigning that way. "We believe this is a two-person contest between Sen. McCain and Gov. Romney," said Steve Schmidt, a McCain strategist.

That's not to say McCain has it locked up. Just ask Brown. Still holding the "McCain!" sign, he said: "I wish I had voted for Romney."